Nawaz comes home to Naya Pakistan

The big question is: will he be allowed to run or will he be disqualified?

Finally, he who can be named and broadcasted on state television is back home and he who cannot be named, forgiven or forgotten is in jail. The tables have turned and the level playing field has been bulldozed into an Indian batting track the boys can play their shots on with the front foot. But Nawaz isn’t returning to the Purana Pakistan that he left; he’s returning to a Naya Pakistan under construction.

One thing is clear though. Possibly the most consequential elections of our lifetimes will take place at some point within the next six months. And the results of those elections will determine Pakistan’s path forward for the next sixty years.

What will these elections look like? That depends on whether the dark and handsome horse is allowed to run. Months after May 9^th and a year after being hounded by the courts and spending weeks in jail, his spirit or narrative doesn’t appear to be broken. He’s the perennial underdog and after being all set to win the elections, he’s suddenly not expected to win and that’s what makes him so dangerous to come from behind and still sweep the elections.

The big question then is: will he be allowed to run or will he be disqualified? In an interesting turn of events, PTI’s bitter opponents like the PPP and JUI-F are now adopting a PTI-style narrative advocating for elections and a level playing field. Their main partner in the PDM government, the PML-N, is enjoying the fruits of its moral compromises. This is a dramatic, new development and has the potential to overturn the script written by the powers that can fix matches.

Many are arguing that support for PTI has been decimated. That there’s no way that he who must not be named is going to come back from this. I’d argue that his support hasn’t vanished, it’s simply gone underground. And this time it’s not just power politics but also personal. And I believe the pressure from all other political parties — minus the PML-N — will result in some kind of participation by the PTI in the upcoming elections.

This means that either he who must not be named or at least his party will be allowed to contest elections. I believe that he who must not be named will be allowed to run elections personally too because his opponents falsely underestimate his strength and think he’s the weakest at this stage. They’ll want him to run because they think he’s going to lose and not having him run will mean the elections will lose their legitimacy and credibility. But he’s going to give them a better fight in the elections than most neutral observers anticipate. He’s going to win marginally or come close to winning.

Unfortunately, in Pakistan, winning isn’t enough though. You also have to be blessed and that’s where round three of instability is going to begin. I do think with a fresh, popular mandate the tables are going to turn. And after a period of temporary instability, he who must not be named will be named Prime Minister. But what will happen after that?

Will there be a truth and reconciliation commission to make peace? Will everyone kiss and move on? Or will there be more confrontation? No one really knows at this point but all key players in this chess game, along with the people of Pakistan, will lose. And the enemies of Pakistan will benefit from our continued instability. The only narrow window of a peaceful transfer of power and path forward is if there is a convincing — not a divided — mandate coming out of the elections. Once again, it is up to the people of Pakistan to save the state and the future of Pakistan.

The powers that be know this and will make every effort to frustrate the ability of the election process to deliver a decisive mandate. But even a dam built to prevent a flood can’t do much in the face of a tsunami. The real question is: are the people of Pakistan ready to channel their tsunami through the ballot box or will they have to deliver it in the streets on the morning after the elections?

Published in The Express Tribune, October 29^th, 2023.

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