How strategic vacuum is destabilising the world order

Never ever in the contemporary era, such a grave strategic vacuum existed as it does today. Leadership vacuum is deepening despite the presence of the UN Security Council’s permanent members and several power groups ranging from G-7 to G-20, NATO, BRICS, SCO and EU. As the global order is facing serious threats because of recent violent events in Gaza and the Ukraine war, the absence of strategic leadership to manage dangerous crises reflects irresponsible and imprudent approach to prevent the world from drifting into a major armed conflict.

Strategic vacuum means a situation when there is an absence of prudent leadership to deal with a dangerous crisis having the potential to destabilise things. When mediocre and below mediocre leadership at the international level exists and is incapable of dealing with issues threatening the present and future of the world, it means how vulnerable the 8 billion people living on this planet are from the periodic outbreak of crises.

US President Joseph Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Israel as a show of solidarity with the Jewish state against what they call barbaric rocket attacks by Hamas and physical incursion killing more than 1,400 people. But, they lacked the courage and conscience to condemn the genocide of more than 4,000 Palestinians, including 1,200 children, from the Israeli retaliatory attacks in Gaza. The world reaction to the situation reflects two realities: first, the West, particularly the US, the UK, France and Italy, stand firmly alongside Israel; and second, the Arab-Muslim world along with some other countries have failed to go beyond condemnation.

The US and the UK the other day vetoed resolutions in the UNSC which had called for ceasefire and provision of humanitarian assistance to the beleaguered 2.3 million population of Gaza. While the US sustained its military supplies to Israel, no Arab country, including Egypt, the neighbour of Gaza, rendered any practical support to the millions of Palestinians facing the wrath of Israel.

Strategic vacuum in terms of global, regional and national leadership to prevent acts of cruelty and genocide is not a new phenomenon. When genocide and ethnic cleansing took place in Rwanda, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Myanmar (against Rohingyas) and Indian-occupied Kashmir, the world remained indifferent. Global and regional organisations like the UN, EU, NATO, OIC, Arab League, G7 and G20 failed to prevent aggression, occupation and genocide against innocent people. If the UN and the Western powers have looked the other way sanctioning the genocide of Palestinians, Arab and Muslim countries only rendered verbal condemnation.

When 2.3 million people of Gaza are facing unabated Israeli air, land and sea attacks, Egypt which is the strongest Arab state gave absurd reason on not opening the Rafah crossing in Gaza that Israel will chase Palestinians from Gaza if they enter Egypt. Even humanitarian assistance by Egypt has long been denied to the people of Gaza who have been blockaded for suffering for want of food, water, electricity, gas and medicines. Establishing a humanitarian corridor between Gaza and Egypt could have alleviated the plight of Palestinians but the state of Egypt gave lame excuses in the context. The leadership in Iran, Turkey, Jordan and Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, which should have been in the forefront to help the Palestinians remained indifferent and only passed verbal statements. If Palestinians are suffering today, their Arab neighbours may face a similar situation tomorrow. Arab League and OIC have a track record of not doing anything tangible in dealing with the Palestinian cause, as well as the civil war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Yemen. When the Arab and Muslim countries lack the capability and credibility to intervene and salvage the beleaguered Muslims suffering from acts of cruelty at the hands of aggressors, how one can accuse the West of being indifferent?

The growing strategic vacuum in today’s world needs to be analysed from three sides.

First is the absence of political pluralism, viable democratic institutions and enlightenment culture in the Arab-Muslim world which has led to a fragile leadership and their degeneration. Israel is no match to its Arab neighbours in territorial and demographic terms, but because of its technological and industrial superiority in the Middle East, the Jewish state is able to deter its Arab neighbours. Saudi Arabia, which is a neighbour of Israel and in possession of enormous wealth, lacks the courage to deter Israel from its acts of genocide against Palestinians. And Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council, the two major regional organisations in the Middle East, fail to play a leadership role in actively supporting the Palestinian cause. It is because of the fragility of Arab leadership that Israel and the US are on the same page on Gaza. Merely expressing anger against the Israeli acts of genocide against the Palestinians will not matter unless the Arab states take practical measures like cutting diplomatic and trade relations with Israel and the US. The policy of indifference as well as the lack of courage on the part of the Arab leadership is a source of strength for Israel and America.

Second, preventing the outbreak of armed conflicts is not only an organisational failure but is also a result of erosion of ethics and morality which promotes aggression, occupation and acts of genocide. The UN charter has plenty of clauses for enforcing peace and taking action against aggression but in practice it is incapable of implementing its own resolutions. When the world has drifted into a vicious cycle of sanctioning abuse of force and blatant violation of international law, acts of genocide, like in Gaza, are bound to occur. If Hamas is guilty of attacking Israel and killing more than 1400 people and taking 200 hostages, Israel should have held a high moral ground by expressing strategic restraint instead of launching inhuman attacks against millions of civilians and enforcing ban on supply of food, fuel, water, electricity and gas. Punishing the innocent people on what Hamas did to Israel on October 7 placed Israel on the side of aggressor.

Finally, the price paid for strategic vacuum in global leadership will come in the form of breakdown of world order. The courage and charisma in global leadership which was witnessed during 1960s and 1970s is not to be seen these days. When decisions are made by mediocre and below mediocre leadership, the result is the deepening of strategic vacuum in the world.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 24^th, 2023.

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