Nawaz returns to take fourth shot at power

ISLAMABAD:

In a political spectacle, the three-time former premier Nawaz Sharif is all set to make his long-anticipated return to the country on Saturday (today), ending his four-year self-imposed exile in London.

The PML-N supremo is stepping onto Pakistan’s soil to marshal his political party for political influence and take a fourth shot at power. His homecoming comes as the country veers toward high-stakes general elections next year, setting the stage for a gripping political showdown.

Threatened with arrests and dogged by high-profile corruption charges, Nawaz has sat out the last four years in London after he was granted temporary leave to travel abroad for medical reasons in 2019. The last door to his return was cracked open recently after being granted pre-emptive bail.

However, his return couldn't have been timed more dramatically as it aligns with the incarceration of his primary rival, ex-PM Imran Khan, and the disarray within Imran’s political party in the wake of the May 9 incidents.

In a fascinating twist, despite the PTI chief’s imprisonment, his popularity remains undiminished. It’s against this backdrop that the PML-N sees Nawaz as the only figure holding the key to rekindling the public's faith as the elections edge closer.

Read Nawaz’s return a big test for judiciary: PTI

Despite all the preparation, it is unclear how much actual support Nawaz can muster. He will be throwing himself at the mercy of voters.

Nawaz "will need to re-energise a support base at a moment when the party's popularity has taken big hits thanks to Imran Khan's large vote bank," said Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute Director at The Wilson Centre. "For Sharif, after the immediate euphoria of his return wears off, he will face an uphill battle. The honeymoon won't last long."

Political resurgence

With the objective of political resurrection in mind, the party has been organising an extravagant reception, making arrangements for the party leader to address the supporters at Minar-e-Pakistan today.

Nawaz’s resurgence isn’t new; he’s a seasoned political survivor, having defied the odds multiple times. This time, however, it carries extraordinary weight as he returns to the political fray four years after being ousted and disqualified in 2017 due to the infamous Panamagate scandal.

His departure from the prime minister’s office was marked by the rallying cry of “vote ko izzat do” (respect the vote). He even took to the streets, openly naming top military officials and judges, accusing them of orchestrating his government’s downfall, although he later adopted a more conciliatory tone regarding accountability for the judges and generals purportedly behind his ouster, emphasizing the importance of economic stability.

According to Professor Tahir Naeem Malik from the National University of Modern Languages (NUML), starting from Muhammad Khan Junejo to Imran Khan, every prime minister since 1985 seems to have lost their grip on relations with the establishment within two to three years of assuming power.

However, the professor noted, Nawaz was lucky to the extent that he was able to make a comeback thrice after locking horns with the then army chiefs over foreign policy and normalisation of relations with India.

The professor said that it would be interesting to see how the powerful stakeholders behave on the PML-N supremo's stance keeping in view the regional and international developments. Nawaz would want to carry his image of a doer but things start moving in another direction whenever a prime minister becomes popular and tries to implement his vision.

“Nawaz Sharif doesn’t have the habit of working as a 'number 2'; he hasn’t worked as a subordinate and remained premier thrice,” Professor Malik said, saying “I feel Nawaz and the establishment have learnt their lessons.” He noted that the former premier was a pragmatic politician and he knows the importance of timing in politics, saying he knows when to push for a narrative and when to stay quiet on the same subject matter.

Nawaz's return coincides with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) expressing reservations about the election process, hinting that it may be geared towards returning PML-N to power.

These concerns have arisen amidst speculations that powerful stakeholders are exerting considerable influence to facilitate PML-N’s resurgence, especially given the difficulties faced by the PTI following the events of May 9.

Read more Festive mood in Pindi on Nawaz’s return

The political landscape is undoubtedly poised for an enthralling battle, with Sharif's return and the intricate interplay of political forces promising a captivating lead-up to the January elections. Sharif's journey of departures and returns from abroad began in 1999 when he was overthrown in a military coup led by General (retd) Pervez Musharraf.

Nawaz went into exile in Saudi Arabia after his removal from office. His time in exile lasted until 2007 when he returned to Pakistan, marking a significant moment in Pakistan’s political landscape as an emotional and tearful former prime minister Benazir Bhutto had returned to Pakistan after eight years in self-imposed exile just ahead of him.

Nawaz had returned home to a chaotic and jubilant welcome to join the deepening power struggle in the country back then. Thousands of frenzied supporters had pushed past police barricades into the airport in Lahore, carrying Nawaz and his brother on their shoulders and cheering wildly as the returning leader stood before them on a raised platform.

His political journey saw another twist in 2013 when he was re-elected as Prime Minister. However, his term was marred by various challenges, leading to his ouster in the Panamagate scandal in 2017. After being disqualified and convicted, he was allowed to leave the country for medical treatment in the UK in 2019.

Now, in 2023, he is set to make another return, following a pattern of departures and comebacks that have defined his political career. These episodes have made him a central figure in the country’s political narrative, marked by resilience and the ability to stage dramatic returns.