The inevitability of Palestinian state

Palestine comprises parts of modern Israel and the Palestinian territories, including Gaza Strip and West Bank (of Jordan River). The area controls main roads from Egypt to Syria and from Mediterranean to the hills beyond the Jordan River.

Gaza (Arabic Qiṭāʿ Ghazzah) is a 363 square km strip, 41 km long and 6 to 12 km wide, situated east of the Mediterranean Sea just northeast of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt). It has a 51 km border with Israel (north and east) and 11 km border with Egypt (south) near Rafah City.

This densely populated area of over 2.3 million people packed in 24 large and small cites/towns (including Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Yunis) is ‘not recognized as a de jure part of any country’. After 2006 Palestinian Authority elections, Fatah, the dominant Palestinian group since 1950s, was decisively defeated by Hamas in Gaza, given its corruption and inefficiency. Despite its status, Israel maintains clandestine contacts with Hamas for its control over Gaza.

Except for the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, Israel virtually controls all aspects of life in Gaza, dominating its economy, trade and politics. The present conflict is the deadliest of the last five involving Israeli blockades and air, ground and missile strikes causing innumerable losses of life, especially to women and children. This time every third death is a Palestinian child. Gaza is described as the largest ‘human jail’. Israel blockade and the impeding ground war against Hamas have forced over a million Palestinians to flee south.

West Bank (Arabic Al-Ḍaffah al-Gharbiyyah) is a ‘former British-mandated territory of Palestine (1920-47)’ west of the Jordan River lying northeast of Gaza strip, non-contiguously. Claimed by Jordan, West Bank was occupied by Israel during the 1967 War. Except for Jordan River in the east and Dead Sea/Jordan in the south, it is surrounded by Israel from all other sides. West Bank’s area is over 5,600 sq km and population around 3 million living in some 11 cities, namely Janīn, Nāblus, Ramallah and Jericho, etc. Jerusalem and Bethlehem (Bayt Laḥm) are divided cities. Both Palestinians and Israelis claim Jerusalem (Bayt al-Muqaddas or Al-Quds) as their capital but neither claim is widely recognized internationally. In 2004, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that West Bank including East Jerusalem was under Israeli military occupation. Israel occupied Bethlehem (10 km south of Jerusalem) in 1967 but ceded its control to Palestinian Authority in 1995. Al-Fatah-led government controls the West Bank.

After the essential human geography, demographics now. Arab population in Palestine, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, stood at 5.79 million in 2017 comprising a huge youth bulge. Out of this, 1.84 million Arabs live in Israel. West Bank’s total fertility rate (TFR) is 3.2, and for Gaza Strip it is 3.97 (2018). Roughly 4,000 people live per sq km in Gaza. Israel by comparison has 9.5 million people with just 2.47 TFR despite official encouragement, except among the ultra-orthodox Jews. With these trends, Israel is likely to be swamped by a sea of Arab population in years to come. And if the extended neighbourhood is considered, Israel already lives in one of the most hostile neighbourhoods.

Israel’s strong-arm tactics will not yield from now on for the following reasons:

First, demographics are not on its side and will never be. Generations of hostile Palestinian youth, with every single one having a personal story of Israeli brutality and personal loss, will never let the Jewish state live in peace.

Second, Hamas was a reaction of the ghettoization of Palestinians. Its elimination will not eliminate the problem, till the time the root causes of inequality, dehumanization of Palestinian Arabs, snatching of the Arab lands and the continued military brutality are addressed. Living constantly for 75 years with humiliation leads to desperation, and Hamas displayed that desperation on 7th October. Although killing of women and children is reprehensible in a conflict, both sides recklessly employ all means to inflict harm. Israel more so, given its power and resources.

Third, oppression can never suppress a people. World history reminds us constantly. Military occupation and control of people can never take away yearning for independence and freedom. Saner voices within the world Jewry, the West and even among Israelis wisely understand this, and need to make Bibi Netanyahu understand this inescapable reality. Holocaust was not in so distant past. Continued bilateral dehumanization and demonization will make it continue in different form and format in the holy land. Hamas’s acts were desperate attempts to enliven an issue, it feared, was pushed to obscurity by Israel and its new-found Abrahamic fraternity.

Fourth, the robustness of Israeli response will never endear its cause to the world citizenry, if not to the Governments. Images and footages of dying Palestinian children and crying women, splashed all over social media and TV screens, would shorten Israel’s room for maneuver, like never before. It will remove the thin veneer of its anti-Palestine strategy as against anti-Hamas one. This has already halted the expansion to Abrahamic fraternity to include Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future. Politically costly Israeli bombing has created an overwhelming sense that Israel has far exceeded its ‘right of self-defense’.

So, the state of Israel sooner than later will have to address the root causes of the Palestinian problem to break this unending and vicious cycle of hate and violence, as the status quo is not tenable. If it opts now for a short-sighted hard response, dictated by Netanyahu’s political calculus to eliminate Hamas, such a ground offensive to occupy Gaza Strip will be reckless militarily and politically. President Joe Biden hinted at that on 16th October and may be traveling to the region to prevent just that. More Hamas will rise from the ashes of vanquished Hamas. Conflagration will also suck in players like Hezbollah, Syria, Jordan and Egypt. Iran and other Arab/Muslim states would be indirectly drawn in due to mounting public pressure. The US/West, busy in Ukraine, would least want such conflagration.

So, long-term peace is possible only through a ‘two-state solution’. Only when Palestinians control their own fate and affairs in their own state, would this vicious cycle of violence ‘end slowly’. Otherwise, bloodshed would change scale and scope, and the weaker side would ultimately match up in asymmetry of response, like in Iraq and Afghanistan. And Mossad would continue to be surprised despite the labyrinth of its ‘local’ informants.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 19^th, 2023.

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