How Trumpism can strike back in coming US elections

In his speech he delivered on October 8 at Cedar Rapids IA, former US president Donald Trump said the Biden administration is excelling in three ‘Is’: Incompetence, immigration and inflation. He said Biden failed to prevent deadly attacks by Hamas on Israel and blamed his administration of patronising Iran by ordering unfreezing of $6 billion which encouraged Teheran to render support to Hamas.

Almost a year is left for the American presidential elections, and Trump, despite being bogged down in legal cases, is determined to again reach White House. Unlike other American presidential candidates, Trump never accepted his election defeat and accused Biden of faking results by masterminding rigging in polls. He used various tactics to not accept the election results. Attack on the Capitol Hill in early January 2021 by his supporters when members of Congress were in the process of declaring final results reflected his desperation to get himself re-elected by all means.

Trump is remembered as the most controversial American president for: dividing his country on racial grounds; targeting immigrants particularly those from Muslim countries; and using public funds to erect a wall on Mexican border in order to prevent the influx of illegal immigrants. Yet, within three years, Trump has managed to re-enter American politics as a cogent threat to Biden in November 2024 presidential elections.

Trump has skillfully manipulated the Biden administration’s shortcomings to pose himself as a major challenger. If he is nominated by the Republican Party as a presidential candidate in mid-2024, one can expect him to transform his ambition into a reality by winning the race for White House. How did Trump manage to regain his popularity and why is the Democratic Party unable to perform better? Republicans performed better in mid-term polls of November 2022 by regaining control of the House of Representative whereas Democrats managed to retain their hold over Senate with a fragile majority. It will be interesting to see how Trump despite cases against him will draw popular support focusing on the slogan “America First”.

According to NPR news dated October 4, “The 2024 presidential race could be historic in a number of ways — the front-runner for the Republican nomination is only the fifth ex-president to run for the office, and were he to be nominated against President Biden, it would be only the seventh presidential rematch in history. But perhaps most notably, former President Donald Trump has been indicted four times, on 91 charges, and impeached twice”.

By refusing to accept the 2020 presidential election results, Trump is determined to again contest and defeat his rival Biden.

NPR report further states, “Trump has been indicted four times at both the state and federal levels, whereas there has been no legal action taken against Biden regarding his son’s business dealings. Independents’ reaction to a conviction could also greatly diminish Trump’s reelection chances. Among all adults, half of independents prefer Trump, to Biden’s 42%. However, among independents who prefer Trump, only one-third say they’d want Trump to be president if he were convicted of a crime. Biden and Trump are neck and neck in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with 49% of registered voters supporting Biden, compared with 47% for Trump”.

It is yet to be seen how pre-election polls conducted in the middle of 2024 will rate Biden and Trump but given the latter’s determination one can expect tough contest between the two presidential candidates.

Trumpism is an ideology reflected in the four-year term of President Trump and features the following: anti-Chinese and pro-Russian policy; exclusive approach of preferring whites over non-whites; inhuman migration policy of separating children from their parents; brutal acts against Afro-Americans by the police; and so forth. Those adhering to Trumpism argue that it was their last chance to prevent the surge of non-whites as the white population lost its demographic edge. In the Trump administration, all the key positions were held by white males.

Do Americans again want to go for an exclusive approach which not only augmented racial polarisation in the US but also earned a bad name for America internationally. Divisive and polarised nature of American society got an impetus during the term of Trump as he backed his supporters to re-assert white supremacists. Has Trump learned lessons from negative aspects of his domestic and foreign policy or does he want to follow the same ideology which was the core of his four years in presidency?

Trumpism is striking back in 2024 presidential elections because of three main reasons.

First, reclaiming white American heritage is the cornerstone of Trumpism. Trump’s followers want to accomplish the agenda of Trumpism that remained unaccomplished during the Trump’s first term. If Trumpism is regaining its charisma, it has to do with the Biden administration’s failures particularly the three ‘Is’ narrated by Trump. Can the US afford to experience another phase of ‘exclusiveness’ by denying non-whites space in society, politics and economy?

Second, if Trumpism has survived, it is because of its constituency found among blue collar workers, drop-outs from high school and unemployed youth. They see their predicament because of affluent immigrants who according to the advocates of Trumpism prospered at their expense. The US is composed of immigrants, except for native Americans who were brutally marginalised by European settlers since 16^th century. How can white supremacists claim to be native Americans particularly when their forefathers migrated from Europe and elsewhere? Hate crimes which are common in America got an impetus and state patronage during the Trump era. The Biden administration tried to reverse the tide of xenophobia and racism but is unable to eradicate the mindset which promoted ideas hostile to political pluralism.

Finally, prevailing Trumpism would mean the defeat of democracy, political pluralism and enlightenment in America. While reflecting a wave of ‘populism’, the triumph of Trumpism would also mean giving a boost to similar forces in different parts of the world who want to target minorities and impose their way of life.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 17^th, 2023.

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