Growing political schism in pre-election Bangladesh

AL govt unable to popularise its narrative that country progressed during Sheikh Hasina's era, even after 15 years

Ambitious to get a fourth term as Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina’s predicament is a growing opposition to her 15 years of rule and external pressure to ensure free and fair elections due in January 2024. Steps like preventing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia to travel abroad for medical treatment and growing political repression against opposition parties particularly Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) tend to question the credibility of forthcoming general elections.

Bangladesh is at the crossroads because 15 years of Awami League’s (AL) government is unable to popularise its narrative that the country has enormously progressed during the era of Sheikh Hasina and she should be given another five years. BNP had boycotted elections in 2014 demanding the replacement of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina with a caretaker government. BNP’s boycott gave a free hand to AL as it got more than a two-thirds majority in the assembly. Realising its ‘strategic blunder’ of boycotting 2014 elections, BNP decided to contest 2018 polls but lost miserably to AL. It accused the ruling party of not providing ‘level playing field’ to those contesting elections and using coercive measures against opposition parties. Now, having remained in power for 15 years, AL is confident that it can manage to get a fourth term because of its performance in modernising infrastructure, particularly the construction of roads and bridges all over Bangladesh.

AL may take credit for its so-called achievements during the 15 years of its rule, but the perception in Bangladesh is different because of severe price hike, rampant corruption and nepotism, Sheikh Hasina’s tilt towards India and her sustained crackdown on opposition parties, particularly BNP.

Will Sheikh Hasina get a fourth term or will there be a paradigm shift in forthcoming general elections in Bangladesh? Will BNP, excluding former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, manage to give a tough time to AL? How is the US along with other western powers seen as a major factor in Bangladeshi politics? These are the questions being raised in the background.

During 15 years of her rule, Sheikh Hasina is blamed for pursuing a policy of ‘vendetta’ against her opponents, particularly Khaleda Zia and BNP. Jammat-e-Islami representing the right-wing Islamists was banned but it has a vote bank which will surely go against AL. Furthermore, the manner in which Sheikh Hasina has targeted Dr Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and founder of Greeman Bank, is another evidence of personal vendetta of not even sparing a renowned personality who played a pivotal role for women empowerment through his micro credit finance programme and pulling his country from below poverty level. Critics argue that AL has a history of using manipulative and coercive methods in elections ever since December 1970 general elections during Pakistan days when it prevented its opponents from contesting elections and used coercion against its opponents. Since 1970, AL has a track record of using force, repression and other strong armed tactics against its political opponents.

As regards the US stance on Bangladesh’s elections, it has been made clear that denying space and level playing field to opposition parties will not be acceptable. Saleem Samad, a veteran journalist of Bangladesh, in his write up ‘US visa policy for Bangladesh causes worries for all’ published in Northeast News on September 29, 2023 stated: “Over the last two years, the US has maintained pressure on Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest serving woman Prime Minister, urging her to ensure a free and fair elections in upcoming national polls expected in the first week of January 2024. Since December 2021 the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the top officials of Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) an elite unit targeting crime and terrorism, which has been accused of extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.” Described by critics as an internal matter of Bangladesh, the writer continued: “The visa policy has indeed made shivers run through the spines of the Awami League, ‘golden boys’ (pro-government delinquent students and youths), and civil and police administration.” The policy of Biden administration to restrict visas “to those who would obstruct the democratic election process or the part of such action” is likely to be followed by Canada, European Union, Britain, Australia and New Zealand.

Political schism in Bangladesh is not new; it dates back since its birth in 1971. But in the last 10 years there is a shift from the politics of agitation to quest for stability which witnessed bettering of country’s economy and growing role of China and India as competitors for investments.

One can figure out two possibilities to emerge in pre-election scenario in Bangladesh.

First, growing fatigue at the popular level in Bangladesh about AL’s 15 years in power will be a determining factor in January 2024 general elections. If AL has done well to ameliorate economic indicators of Bangladesh, people are enraged over the manner in which political repression, India’s growing influence, rampant price hike and uncontrolled corruption and nepotism have generated a negative perception of the country. When AL in its 15 years of rule deepened its authoritarian and dictatorial mode of governance by inundating bureaucracy, police, judiciary and media with its supporters, the outcome is shrinking democratic space for opposition parties, particularly BNP.

Second, even if political schism in Bangladesh is deep-rooted and reflected in dynastic politics, AL has played its cards well by ensuring shattering of opposition and denying political space to its archrival BNP. Unlike Sheikh Hasina, who is confident of securing a fourth term, there is an absence of cogent leadership and unity among opposition parties. Years and years of political persecution have deprived BNP of strong cadre and leadership. Tariq Zia, the son of Khaleda Zia and her political heir, is in exile, having fled Bangladesh after being charged in corruption cases. When the rank and file of BNP is incapable of providing viable leadership for Bangladesh, how can it expect to win in 2024 elections?

Published in The Express Tribune, October 10^th, 2023.

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