What hampers a deal in Black Sea?

Black Sea is located in the south of Ukraine and is one of the most isolated zones from the oceans. It is the only way for Ukraine to ship anything out of its landmass. When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, it blocked the Black Sea. After that the United Nations and Turkiye brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine, widely known as the ‘Black Sea Grain Deal’. The deal, however, was not to last for long as Kyiv and Moscow were at loggerheads, and the shipment and supply chain got ruptured.

The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has taken a toll on food and energy supplies. It has endangered peace and security and pushed the major powers at nuclear conflagration. Likewise, the excessive reliance on supply chain from Ukraine, as it is the food basket of the world, led to rise in prices and skyrocketing inflation.

The volatility cannot be overcome until the war comes to an end. Ships with perishable products are stranded at many of the ports of Ukraine, and so supply of oil and gas, to Europe especially, is proving to be a tough task as another winter nears. The estimates are that a total loss of over $137 billion has incurred since the conflict begun. The fact that Black Sea Grain Deal is in limbo is a strategic food threat to the world.

Turkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has acted as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, recently met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, and tried to reorient the deal, as Moscow had walked out of it unilaterally. Turkiye has also supported Ukraine by sending arms and is an advocate of Kyiv joining the western military alliance, Nato. This balancing act, however, didn’t bear any results.

Erdogan had an uphill task to cope with as he mediated between the warring parties. President Putin is on record having said that the deal cannot be revived unless his conditions were met. “Russia was forced to do it, as western countries blocked the deal and continue to block grain deals in terms of hampering access of Russian agriculture products to world markets… it can't be tolerated further," Putin remarked. The intention as far as Russia is concerned is that the Black Sea corridor should not be used for military purposes.

The US and EU have dismissed Russian complaints, saying their sanctions do not target Russian grain deals and fertilisers. The point is that there is a distribution problem, but the question is: who is responsible for this unfair distribution of food supplies? One thing is however very clear: that this Russian position makes things worse. Russia has also sent a firm message by flying drones and attacking the Ukrainian town of Odasa.

A glance at events suggests that Ukraine must soften its approach and enter into talks with Russia. If that is not the case the Black Sea Grain Deal will not be implementable in the near future. It must be taken into consideration that Putin blames the West for not keeping their word, and there are sanctions too on Russian food exports. Russia also alleges that its supply of free grains to six African countries, exported through the Black Sea, went to the West instead of reaching the poor nations. Likewise, three Ukrainian ships have left Black Sea since July without Russian permission.

Wheat prices have increased 10 per cent worldwide since July, and food inflation globally is on the rise. Almost 33 million tons of grain were shipped from Ukraine under the deal, and world food prices declined by roughly 20 per cent. Since Russia pulled out of the deal, food prices have once again shot up.

Nato is monitoring the Black Sea region with maritime patrol, aircraft and drone surveillance. The 1936 Montreux Convention gives Turkiye control over warships entering the straits, and guarantees the passage of civilian vessels in peace time.

Erdogan has also tried to convince Western countries to let Russia in a limited way come back to the international payment system. The UN too has suggested that Russia set up a subsidiary of the bank, which would allow the use of SWIFT code, but it seems Moscow has other plans.

This stalemate on the diplomatic, military and political sides is hampering a deal, and the Ukrainian conflict is impacting the world population in terms of supply chain and a threat to global security.