Fact check: Is Pakistan at risk of a major earthquake?

No one can predict where and when an earthquake could strike, says Director National Tsunami Centre Karachi

Fuelled by X handles with thousands of followers, rumours circulating on social media and WhatsApp groups in Pakistan claim that a major earthquake is likely to hit the country in the next 48 hours.

A post shared on the microblogging platform, citing Dutch Scientist Frank Hoogerbeets, member of Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), who in the past used planetary alignments to predict fatal earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, claimed that the scientist has once again predicted that in the next 48 hours, a strong earthquake was going to “rock Pakistan”.

“Earthquake” is currently the top trend in the country on X as many people fearing for their lives seek guidance from the authorities.

Planetary geometry is difficult to interpret with four conjunctions spread out over the next 10 days. As far as I can tell, 1-3 October will be more critical. https://t.co/Cao2VExGNB

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) September 29, 2023

The scientist, in the post, based his assertion on a “massive surge of electric activity” along fault lines in Balochistan without mentioning the area.

- Dutch Researcher Frank Hoogerbeets, researcher at Solar System Geometry Survey, has predicted a major #earthquake in #Pakistan's Balochistan region.

- The latter raised alarms for a major earthquake in Pakistan, set to rock the nation within the next 48 hours.

- According to… pic.twitter.com/HgoV3aZuAD

— World Times (@WorldTimesWT) October 2, 2023

Director National Tsunami Centre Karachi Amir Haider Laghari said that where and when the earthquake would occur cannot be exactly predicted.

He said that the boundaries of two major tectonic plates pass through Pakistan, stretching from Sonmiani to the northern region of Pakistan, adding that an earthquake could occur at any point within these boundary lines, which is not possible to predict.

Read More: Fact check: Are Pakistan, India at risk of a major earthquake?

Laghari recalled that in 1892, there was an earthquake of 9 to 10 magnitude on the Chaman fault line, while in 1935, there was a strong quake in the Chiltan range, in which thousands of people died.

In February, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) had also dismissed the scientist’s prediction regarding a quake to hit India and Pakistan, which later proved to be hearsay.

Read More: Atsu 'in debris' of Turkey, Syria earthquake

It added that “neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future”.

The USGS also added that they could only able to estimate the likelihood that a large earthquake would strike a particular location "within a certain number of years".

Moreover, Weather Updates Pakistan also added its voice in negating the assertion and held that there was never an accurate prediction model which could exactly anticipate the possible hitting of the earthquake in any part of the world’s region.

The Dutch scientist who predicted the earthquake in Turkey predicted the #earthquake in #Pakistan The Seismological Research Institute Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGS) has predicted an earthquake in the Chaman fault line in the next two days.

The Seismological Research… pic.twitter.com/n6apDx0UbD

— Weather Updates PK (@WeatherWupk) October 2, 2023

It argued that scientists could only predict quakes based on past patterns.

One social media user did not look convinced with the Weather Updates Pakistan’s assertion, saying that most predictions by the said scientist later turned out to be true. She cited the scientist's exact prophecy about the impending quake to hit Turkey and Morocco then.

Most predictions this scientist has made, have come true including the earthquake on Turkey and Morocco. So it's wise not to disregard it completely. We should be praying foe Allah's Mercy and have emergency bags ready

— Javeria Farooqui (@javfarooqui) October 2, 2023

To which, the handle replied, "Once in a blue moon, only Turkiye’s prediction went correct that too with noticeable difference on day frame."

Once in a blue moon , only trukey prediction went correct that too with noticable Difference on day frame

— Weather Updates PK (@WeatherWupk) October 2, 2023

It is pertinent to mention the quake which hit Turkey, earlier this year, had claimed more than 50,000 lives.