What’s next for Pakistan?

Watching Pakistani news these days is a lot like watching the Pakistani batting order collapse. Pretty much everything that can go wrong is going wrong. And the result is a feeling of fear, panic and anxiety.

How did we get here? Was the original sin May 9^th or the VONC or the 2018 elections or somewhere in the late 1950s? That depends on who you ask and that’s the problem. We are so intensely polarised that we can’t even answer the basic questions that will begin to heal the political fabric of our country. While the actual state of play for the next 12 months is unclear, the best case scenario is absolutely crystal clear. That there are free and fair elections in the country that are violence-free and the winner’s mandate is accepted by all parties. Is that too much to ask? If you’re born Pakistani, the answer apparently, is yes. That’s too much to ask.

What will these elections look like? That depends on whether the dark and handsome horse is allowed to run. Months after May 9^th and a year after being hounded by the courts and spending weeks in jail, his spirit or narrative doesn’t appear to be broken. He’s the perennial underdog and after being all set to win the elections, he’s suddenly not expected to win and that’s what makes him so dangerous to come from behind and still sweep the elections.

The big question then is: will he be allowed to run or will he be disqualified? It appears that international pressure is coming to fruition on not letting he who must not be named to be disqualified from being a political player. Many are arguing that support for PTI has been decimated. That there’s no way that he who must not be named is going to come back from this. I’d argue that his support hasn’t vanished, it’s simply gone underground. And this time it’s not just power politics but also personal.

This means that either he who must not be named or at least his party will be allowed to contest elections. I believe that he who must not be named will be allowed to run elections personally too because his opponents falsely underestimate his strength and think he’s the weakest at this stage. They’ll want him to run because they think he’s going to lose and not having him run will mean the elections will lose their legitimacy and credibility. But he’s going to give them a better fight in the elections than most neutral observers anticipate. He’s going to win marginally or come close to winning.

Unfortunately, in Pakistan, winning isn’t enough though. You also have to be blessed and that’s where round three of instability is going to begin. I do think with a fresh, popular mandate the tables are going to turn. And after a period of temporary instability, he who must not be named will be named Prime Minister. But what will happen after that?

Will there be a truth and reconciliation commission to make peace? Will everyone kiss and move on? Or will there be more confrontation? No one really knows at this point but all key players in this chess game, along with the people of Pakistan, will lose. And the enemies of Pakistan will benefit from our continued instability. The only narrow window of a peaceful transfer of power and path forward is if there is a convincing — not a divided — mandate coming out of the elections. Once again, it is up to the people of Pakistan to save the state and the future of Pakistan.

The powers that be know this and will make every effort to frustrate the ability of the election process to deliver a decisive mandate. But even a dam built to prevent a flood can’t do much in the face of a tsunami. The real question is whether the people of Pakistan are ready to channel their tsunami through the ballot box or they will have to deliver it in the streets on the morning after the elections.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 1^st, 2023.

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