Jim O’Neill identified the BRIC as a pack of four largest emerging economies in 2001. Since its formation in 2010, BRICS, the club of five, has been dangling upon the geo-economic horizon as an un-realised potential that could dominate global economy.
The reason being that it goes inverse of the prevailing US-dominated World Order that it is not ready to let go. As for Russia and China, the US and Allies are up against them on the Ukraine and Taiwan fronts. In Brazil, the US left no stone unturned to keep Jair Bolsonaro in power, but the people voted him out and brought Lula, the symbol of the Pink Tide, back to power. But India, with the Modi regime, is a pivot for the US that it is viciously using against both China and Russia. India has been vehemently voicing the QUAD-initiated anti-China rhetoric and has constantly shied away from endorsing Russia’s right to defend itself in the Ukraine conflict.
But in spite of this deep cleavage between China, Russia and India, BRICS has been able to take the forum a step further. This by adding six new members — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia — in the forum. Who could have thought just one year ago that Saudi Arabia and Iran would be in a shared platform! Who could have thought that Egypt or the UAE would forsake their age-long alliances with the US and somersault into the BRICS pool!
Already the BRICS’ combined GDP has exceeded that of the G7 in 2020, and is forecast to account for 33% of the world’s GDP in 2028 as against G7’s 27%. On top of this with Iran, Saudi and the UAE already in the group, and Kuwait and Venezuela being the applicants, the whole OPEC will be in. And if Iraq gets to join in too, eight of the ten biggest oil producers will be in the BRICS.
Our Foreign Office, meanwhile, states that Pakistan has yet not forwarded a formal request to join BRICS, but being an economic and strategic ally of China, Pakistan is poised to do so in near future. Pakistan is also among the Next-Eleven, another eleven countries identified by Jim O’Neill in 2005, as a set of fast-growing countries that could potentially follow the BRICS in having a major impact on the world economy. N-11 countries including Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam, out of which Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, the MIST, will prove to be the forerunners. Though the prospects are good, it is understandable that political stability inside, and regional and international political interventions from outside can affect the path to progress, as we can identify in the case of Pakistan.
BRICS however covers 30% of world land area and 42% of its population. With all this weight, it wouldn’t have been a surprise that they establish a New World Order of their wanting. But post-Cold War geopolitics has been of such nature that it has kept states divided; it has asked for governance on the principle of self-interests-only; it has prevented states from being neighbourly or regional and allowed for a US-tending unilateral globalisation only.
This is actually the face of brute power, it needs to be unhinged and absolute, and it needs all others to be its subservient, and isolated from each other. Peace, sharing and recognising each other’s state sovereignties is the antithesis of superpower politics, at least that is what was taught in the post-Cold-War World Order. It was taught that there are no friends and only interests; it was taught that the only acceptable model for humanity was to fall in line with US liberal democracy, which has proven to be a formula for cold, spiritless, capitalist materialism, whose goal has been the maximising of inequality.
Imagine! The total wealth of the world is over $454 trillion, if this wealth is roughly divided among 7.88 billion people, it would make $57,600 annually or $150 per day for every single human on the planet. Whereas, according to estimates, as of 2019, 85% of humanity was living on less than $30 per day, two-thirds on less than $10 per day, and 10% on less than $1.90 per day. In fact, the richest 1% own almost half of the world’s wealth, while the poorest half of the world own just 0.75%.
So, although China seems to be leading the world into a Chinese-led world order, and although China does talk of the Global Civilization Initiative, aimed at “mutual understanding and friendship among people of all countries and jointly advance the progress of human civilizations”, the question mark for humanity should be whether China really means to make people-centric frameworks for global security or global development, or it is only a change of façade hiding the same hubris of power, the same avarice of capital accumulation.
What needs to be thought through is: is there going to be a New World Order to devolve wealth and progress towards an equal humanity or is it just going to be a shift of capital from one coffer to another, with humanity really being the looser again?
All states want to see themselves ahead of others in the race for progress and prosperity, but in this race, the fortunate always tend to trample the misfortunate under the ruthless footsteps of their selfish greed, within the state and within the geopolitical framework. The question is: can we be pro-equality, pro-green, pro-sharing socialists at heart? Can we kill the capitalists in our hearts?
Perhaps China and Brazil have shown socialist devolution in their countries; they have raised millions out of poverty in the previous decades — but will they be able to deliver the principle in a wholesome manner and in a global manner? Or will they use the idea as a moral slogan just to win superpower status!
It is a moral obligation upon each of us as individuals and each of us as states to constantly gauge our actions with reference to the effects they draw upon our own communities and upon the community of nations. Life’s purpose cannot be purposelessness; humanity’s fate should not be mere desolation and anguish!
Published in The Express Tribune, September 1st, 2023.
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