The lack of strategic planning and foresight

Interrim govt must focus its energies on preventing the impending economic disaster

When a state lacks professionalism in managing a crisis, it means it is devoid of planning, strategic foresight and focus on dealing with issues which cause instability and chaos in society. After the replacement the PDM government with a caretaker set-up, it is time to analyse why the country continues to grapple with serious economic, political and governance crises.

Viewed in the context of India’s moon-landing; the recent inclusion of six countries into BRICS bloc; and Bangladesh’s remarkable progress in the realm of human development, Pakistan’s lack of strategic planning and foresight tends to diminish its future prospects as a successful state. As our leadership lacks strategic planning and foresight to turn around the economy; achieve political stability and good governance; ensure rule of law, accountability; eradicate corruption and nepotism; and promote a culture of merit, our country is bound to see further decline in global standing.

Strategic planning means the presence of prudence, wisdom and vision to ensure success for plausible defence, security and human security. It also means focus on strategic planning to augment the country’s economy; seek excellence in education, science and technology; modernise infrastructure; and eradicate extremism, de-radicalisation of youth, violence and terrorism from society. Whereas, strategic foresight means “a structured and systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and better prepare for change. It is about exploring different plausible futures that could arise, and the opportunities and challenges they could present. We then use those ideas to make better decisions and act now.” When Research and Development (R&D) is given priority and the leadership is competent, intelligent and honest to attain future goals, the challenge of strategic foresight can be met.

As a result of myopic strategic thinking and foresight, not only Pakistan’s economy has gone down the drain, but its dwindling political, educational and societal institutions are threatening the country’s very survival. Why is there lack of strategic planning and foresight on the part of those wielding power? Why is Pakistan — despite being a nuclear state having the world’s seventh largest military as well as the sixth most populous country of the world — on the decline in terms of economy, politics, ethics, governance, rule of law and accountability? What are the practical measures required to establish a culture of strategic planning and foresight and how can right kind of priorities be fixed to prevent further decline in the country’s stature?

The religious fanaticism in Jaranwala town of Punjab on August 16, when churches and properties of Christian community were destroyed by a mob, reflects an intolerant and extremist society we have become over the last several decades. The Battagram mishap wherein 8 people, including schoolchildren, remained stuck in a chairlift for several hours, is another example of the criminal and irresponsible behaviour of the people in our midst. Furthermore, there are countless examples to prove the indifference and apathy of the relevant authorities over the unbearable increase in the prices of fuel, gas, electricity and food items — reflecting lack of strategic planning and foresight. When the state adopts an exclusive approach, instead of an inclusive one, to manage political crisis, how can one expect the country to compete with its counterparts in space technology, education, research and economy?

Is there any hope of pulling Pakistan out of the multiple crises it is suffering from in the presence of a leadership that suffers from myopic strategic planning and foresight as reflected in its unimpressive performance in the realms of economy, governance, service delivery, education, research, science and technology, sports, etc? One can analyse the fault-lines in Pakistan’s strategic thinking, planning and foresight from three angles, as follows:

First, there is the need to have a strategic focus on preventing the impending economic disaster particularly when the rupee has depreciated by 30% against the dollar since the ouster of the PTI government in April 2022, along with a huge raise in the prices of fuel, electricity, gas and various essential items. A major fault-line in strategic planning and thinking is lack of focus on the part of those at the helm. They have no idea where Pakistan is headed in terms of economy, politics and governance. Living in their comfort zones with their stakes abroad, their focus is on a superficial strategic planning disregarding the fact that Pakistan lags far behind in innovative research — something which can improve the quality of life of people in terms of provision of clean and safe drinking water, free and compulsory education to all, modern infrastructure, better healthcare and housing facilities as well as empowerment of youth and women. When the focus is on doling out to people as much as 500 billion rupees annually under the Benazir Income Support Program from the taxpayers’ money instead of providing them with skills and training to stand on their feet, the country will continue to depend on external borrowing.

Second, when the focus of strategic planning and foresight is to serve the interests of elites, particularly those in power, Pakistan in unlikely to improve its ranking — 144^th currently — on the human development index and its passport will continue to rank among the worst in the world. Absence of strategic planning, vision and foresight — to prevent brain drain of educated people; improve macroeconomic indicators; and promote industrialisation — will continue to diminish Pakistan’s position on the global stage.

Finally, lack of focus on formulating a proactive foreign policy and protecting our sovereignty before world powers and global financial institutions is another fault-line in Pakistan’s strategic thinking and foresight. Non-compliance with the policy of self-reliance and austerity and competing with the world in export technology and quality products deepens the fault-line in the country’s strategic thinking and foresight.

When the focus is on disregarding the sanctity of superior courts, preventing timely elections and imposing curbs on media and the opposition, the present and future of Pakistan would remain uncertain. The way out of this myopic strategic thinking is to have a competent, intelligent, visionary and honest leadership both at national and provincial levels. When no state institution is free from incompetence, corruption and nepotism, one is bound to see further erosion of strategic planning and foresight in the days to come.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 29^th, 2023.

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