16 months, perspectivism and liberal predicament

Sweeping uncharitable generalisation about the 16-month performance of a coalition government abound. A non-normative evaluation deserves contextualisation: were these times normal? The instant is a microcosm of the historic, soliciting comprehension in its entirety: historic, socio-psychological, political and economic.

Despite all efforts, pre-2018, only a shaky coalition government was possible, necessitating continuous external sustenance.

A two-pronged plan seemed enacted: ensuring a polity with minimum opposition followed by reforms. Soon, constraints inherent to pluralism and regional diversity were perceived as obstacles to grandiose ambitions. Aims then transmuted into establishment of a long-term, unquestioned, hybrid system ushering change through authoritarian modes.

The motives of two sides were mutually reinforcing. They shared goals of virtual effacement from the political landscape of the two-party-led dynastic politics viewed as existential threats to reciprocal interests. There was disbelief in the truism that the weakness of present democracy was rather the result than a cause of sustained denial of democracy by the unelected powerful. A third force as deliverers of a pristine, modern Pakistan was launched.

The 2006 COD with the explicit goal of curtailing military role in politics was a watershed. Art 58(2)(b) was banished. An army chief was removed, another sentenced to death for abrogating the Constitution and extension was refused to a third. Extra-state activities were chastised.

The quest for a radical political reconfiguration resonated in ceaseless polemic against corruption, a ready tool in the hands of intolerant bonapartists. It became an alibi for genuine social and economic reforms. Impracticable moon-promises were invoked appealing to politically and economically excluded middle class.

Populist diatribes against corrupt elites echo rightist, middle class disillusionments. Ingrained propaganda to demonise and malign civil dominance has always been a constant justification for strongmen political ambitions.

An anti-corruption witch-hunt stood launched with cases framed against and long jailing of all prominent political opponents and media personalities. Most cases stood legally rejected. The press stood curbed.

The honeymoon, one-page arrangement started fraying with increasing differences over competence and delivery, especially in Punjab, the mil-pol heartland. Disagreements emerged over foreign policy relating to India and the West, deterioration of relations with steadfast allies, China and Saudi Arabia, and mishandling of the economy.

Continuing Indo-Pak antipathy was recognised by the establishment as increasingly unsustainable. An LoC ceasefire materialised and geo-economics became a catchphrase.

Meek beginnings towards trade opening were however peremptorily scuttled for political considerations. It was a strong rebuff, a reversal to a strategic shift in a vital domain.

Following increasing civ-mil tensions it was around this time that the establishment took a strategic, institutional level decision to henceforth adopt a neutral stance assuming political non-partisanship. Government was perceived pursuing factional over national interests.

On signs of seizure of telephonic calls to and other external pressures against coalition partners and disaffected party members, the works by the opposition parties, representing 67% of voters, towards a VONC commenced in October 2021, fructifying in the PDM. Differences over changing a DG ISI proved consequential.

The Ukraine war was an oil price bombshell. Untimely presence of a PM in Moscow on the very day of Kiev incursion compromised space for diplomatic maneuvering between the East and West.

Devastating floods during May 2022, inundating 30% of the country’s landmass caused massive displacements and losses to people, cattle, housing and infrastructure. With damages estimated around $30-40 billions, GDP shrank by 1-1. 5%.

Breach of vows with the IMF is not uncommon yet granting unfunded subsidies on petrol and electricity costing $1.2 billion in Feb 2022 dealt a dire blow from which the economy has yet to fully recover. A sharp IMF response resulted.

During efforts to restore the IMF deal, the bank, chastened by serious trust deficit, demanded unprecedentedly tough, front-loaded conditions of prior arrangement of $4 billion from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a market determined exchange rate and withdrawal of subsidies on petroleum and electricity.

An already faltering economy, hit by the Ukraine war and massive floods, spun into precipitous tailspin. Foreign bilateral and multilateral sources dried up. Together with a chronic current account deficit, this led to sharp reserve depletion raising imminent fears of debt default with serious social, political and security ramifications. The rupee plummeted and inflation, impacted by devaluation and a global commodity crisis, hit unseen levels of 38%. Growth shrank from 6% to 0.5% although, not far back, in 2019, it had collapsed to minus 0.4%. Through abnormal import constriction, default was avoided. A temporary victory, but one rightly to be proud of by a nuclear state of 250 million. In foreign policy, restoration of normalcy in relation with China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, fence mending with the West and Russia are pivotal achievements. The attempt at forming an alternate Islamic bloc separate from Saudi-led OIC forced a miffed SBM, requisitioning back $1 billion for which Pakistan had to scramble to China for rescue. Post April 2022, China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE literally doled out the country providing $4 billion as IMF precondition.

A record wheat harvest, securing $10 billion Saudi investment in an oil refinery and promises of around $20 billion in mining, agriculture and revival of CPEC are promising indications.

Unprecedented political instability plagued the coalition throughout. Protests continued ad-infinitum following non-acceptance of a VONC, with calls for snap elections. Ultra nationalist, anti-US sentiment on a cypher hyperbole, rousing up anti army-leadership and anti-US popular passions, led to violent attacks on military installations in protest against an arrest.

Civil and personal morality stands disjuncted. Accepted norms of peaceful political transfer are challenged. Writ and authority of state institutions, police, courts and judgements are assailed or accepted based on personal benefit.

Military hegemony is non-condonable on any ground — moral, secular or liberal. Individual rights are non-negotiable. But freedom cannot be a licence to violent challenge and attack on state with mutinous intent to secure political change through illiberal processes. A democratic order cannot permit, using its own rules, its own subversion! Democracy cannot contemplate freedom to overthrow its own survival.

Inability to explain this to the common man may be worst failure of the coalition. The liberal predicament continues.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 22^nd, 2023.

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