Risk of a military conflict in South China Sea

During their trips to China, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reassured Beijing that Washington did not want to contain it economically and there was “ample room” of engagement with China in trade, investment and other critical issues, urging closer communication to address disagreements through dialogue.

Around the same time Yellen was ensuring her Chinese counterparts of protecting the critical relationship, US Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink stressed on working with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to “push back on behavior…including the many irresponsible acts…carried out by China” in the South China Sea (SCS).

On the sidelines of a series of the ASEAN meetings in Jakarta, Blinken and China’s foreign policy chief Wang Yi agreed to maintain communication, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. The US State Department’s readout noted the meeting was part of the efforts “to responsibly manage competition by reducing the risk of misperception and miscalculation”.

But US accusations of China’s routine harassment of claimant state vessels, promotion of “free and open Indo-Pacific” and freedom of navigation of operations and the two countries’ military drills in the SCS and around the Taiwan Strait cast doubts that the consensus touted by the US and Chinese diplomats will prevent any miscalculation and put a floor to the bilateral ties.

In the past, senior US officials and military officers have vowed to “fight tonight” if needed to defend the country’s interests across Asia-Pacific, referring to Chinese claims in the SCS as “preposterous.” Washington’s continuous support of the SCS Arbitral Tribunal ruling — which, Beijing says, violates the principle of state consent, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and international law — heightens such risks.

The militarisation of the region could at any time make matters worse with either side twisting the knife. Alliances such as the AUKUS and Quad as well as NATO’s expansion to East Asia in an attempt to blockade China militarily may cultivate a conflict (leading into a nuclear war), something ASEAN is seriously concerned about.

China’s worries about US defence engagement in the region aren’t entirely inordinate. Unfortunately, the US has an extensive history of initiating and bankrolling wars and conflicts. According to the Congressional Research Service, there were hundreds of instances in which America had deployed its military abroad to fuel military conflicts and promote its interests including imposing 11 declared and several undeclared wars on East and Southeast Asian and European countries such as Japan, Korea, Vietnam, France, Germany, Italy and the Great Britain.

The US has also been involved in a number of unauthorised hostilities through armed intervention, proxy forces and airstrikes. That’s per Brennan Center for Justice. Quite a few countries in the Global South didn’t condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine for they thought the US-led NATO’s expansion to Eastern Europe had triggered this chaos that is affecting nearly every person living on the planet.

The US has more than 171,000 troops deployed overseas with about 750 bases in 80 countries. Japan and South Korea have the first- and third-largest US military footprints in East Asia. America’s four new military bases in the Philippines, to gain greater access to the SCS and Taiwan, in addition to an estimated 313 bases in East Asia revalidate China’s concerns about its containment and underline why the US is chanting the mantra of maintaining “open lines of communication” with China.

In a “quite unusual” meeting, Chinese ambassador to US Xie Feng on Wednesday visited the Pentagon to hold talks with top US defense official for Asia Ely Ratner in an effort to bring the bilateral and military relations back on track. This signals Beijing’s willingness to revive mil-to-mil hotlines but not Washington’s intent to scale back its military presence in the region to prevent the likelihood of a conflict.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 9^th, 2023.

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