241 million and counting

Census data reveals population growth at exponential levels spelling trouble for Pakistan ahead

The results of the still-controversial 2023 census state the country’s population as 241.9 million, an increase of almost 34 million over 2017, and 110 million more than in the 1998 census. The country’s growth rate of 2.55% also remains among the highest in the world. The growth rate has actually increased since 2017, when it was 2.4%. This is also a rarity, as most countries have seen their growth rates gradually decline with the passage of time.

While many in the country try to put a positive spin on this, the current economic turmoil clearly illustrates that our economy is in no position to sustain the current population, let alone a growing one, without massive economic growth, which no economist projects for several years, at the very least. Meanwhile, the local and region-wise results also show enough demographic changes to warrant fresh delimitation, which requires between four and six months and could delay the general elections unless some sort of compromise is reached. A change in seat allocation would also require a constitutional amendment, which would require a parliament, throwing a fresh spanner into the works as the current parliament’s term expires in less than a week.

The delay could also be prolonged further if there are still disputes over the findings. However, one possible avenue to quickly dispute the results comes from the decision to geotag buildings, allowing for easier verification of extreme undercounts or overcounts — MQM-P leaders, in particular, have claimed that populations in high-rise buildings were severely undercounted.

Still, there is no hope for elections being held this year based on the new census data, but if a deal is reached to use the previous delimitations, the next government could still adjust resource allocation based on the latest data, which could resolve many citizens’ complaints while also appeasing political parties. However, this would also be problematic since the same thing happened in 2018, when elections were held based on pre-2017 data because disputes between the major parties could not be resolved.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 8^th, 2023.

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