Can Sheikh Hasina secure a fourth term?

Bangladesh faces its defining moment with polls scheduled to take place in six months

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina — following in the footsteps of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is contesting for a third term in the 2024 general elections — is seeking a fourth term in the general elections scheduled in January 2024. With the elections in Bangladesh merely six months away, the political temperature in the country is gradually rising and opposition parties, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are demanding that Sheikh Hasina resign to give way to a caretaker setup to hold free and fair elections.

The US and other major powers are pressing hard on Sheikh Hasina to guarantee free and fair elections with level-playing field for all political parties. The ruling Awami League (AL) has failed to perform in the recent local government elections; and the opposition parties — like in India — have got united to give a tough fight to Sheikh Hasina. Yet, like the BJP, the AL is confident of securing another term in power because of its performance in the economy and infrastructure development.

One needs to analyse how Bangladesh — which, according to former US National Security Adviser and Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger, was a ‘basket case’ and highly dependent on foreign aid for its survival at the time of independence — is now pretty different. Paradigm shift in Bangladesh took place in the recent past when not only its per capita income surged but its exports, remittances and GDP showed impressive improvement; and its remarkable achievement in population control and women empowerment pulled it from below the poverty level. Human Security Index too improved and the political instability was brought under control to a large extent. Now that Bangladesh has pulled millions of people from below the poverty line and its literacy ratio has also improved, it is now aspiring to emerge as a middle-income nation in coming years.

If there are positives in Bangladesh in the context of human and social development, there are also negatives which still challenge the country in terms of political stability, democracy, corruption and rule of law. How can the people of Bangladesh — who, when part of Pakistan, were politically very conscious and committed to democracy — tolerate a regime which is authoritarian in nature and intolerant to opposition? In the last 15 years, the Hasina regime has managed to neutralise the main opposition party BNP, put its leaders in jail and arrested those demonstrating against her government. AL has also managed to control media, civil society, judiciary and military.

Twice did Bangladesh come under a military rule during 1970s and 1980s, but the Hasina regime has miraculously managed to appease military generals by augmenting their perks and privileges so that they no more remain a threat to her rule. By neutralising the military, Sheikh Hasina has been able to secure her regime — albeit at a heavy price. Hasina’s confidence is growing because not only has the threat from the military dwindled but she has also got enormous support from the Modi regime. By silencing the opposition and ensuring support from bureaucracy, military, judiciary and a segment of civil society, Sheikh Hasina is confident that she can secure a fourth term and further consolidate Bangladesh’s economy and modernise the infrastructure.

Will Sheikh Hasina return to power for a fourth time or get a tough time by the BNP-led joint opposition? Once Sheikh Hasina and Khalida Zia phase out of the political scene, who will lead AL and BNP, and what will be the future of democracy in Bangladesh? One needs to analyse the possibility of Sheikh Hasina securing a fourth term from three angles.

First, despite the ostensible prosperity and development, economic predicament of the people of Bangladesh is augmenting with each passing day. Escalation in the prices of essential commodities, loadshedding of electricity and the growing rich-poor gap question the performance of the Hasina’s regime. It is the growing economic disparity due to which the opposition parties are challenging the popular legitimacy of the AL government. In the last few days, a new class has emerged that has accumulated enormous wealth because of the income generated from garment exports. The new wealth in Bangladesh has however failed to generate a trickledown effect as the poor and middle classes are unable to survive amidst the rising cost of living fuelled by food and fuel prices. If the BNP and other opposition parties are able to expose the failure of the AL regime to ameliorate the economic conditions of the common man, then they stand a chance in the coming general elections.

Second, all the way since the December 1970 elections in Pakistan, AL has been notorious for intimidating the opposition. The ruling party is blamed for using coercive measures against its political opponents and indulging in rigging in elections. Based on the experience of the elections in 2008, 2013 and 2018, the opposition parties are demanding that elections are held under a caretaker government as was done from 1991 till 2008. The BNP, in 2013, had demanded general elections under a caretaker set-up which the AL government had disbanded in 2013 through a constitutional amendment. When AL refused to accept the demand, BNP boycotted the elections which gave AL a walkover after which it exercised repressive measures against BNP leaders and workers, including former PM Khaleda Zia. Realising its mistake of boycotting elections in 2013, BNP decided to contest the 2018 elections, but could only secure few seats in the parliament. In the meantime, AL consolidated its power by launching various developmental programmes and improving the economy. The Modi regime helped Sheikh Hasina all the way through large-scale investments and loans for various projects.

Third, the onus to conduct free and fair elections rests with the election commission. Allegations that the election commission has been compromised and will not prevent AL candidates from carrying out rigging in the upcoming elections will compel foreign observers and major powers to take measures against the AL regime.

Despite the confidence that the AL and its leader Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina flaunt vis-à-vis its chances in the forthcoming elections, it seems all is not well for the ruling party. If the elites of Bangladesh are the beneficiaries of the deep-rooted Indian influence and pro-capitalist policies of Sheikh Hasina, AL cannot take popular support for granted. Fingers crossed as far as the political landscape of Bangladesh in 2024 is concerned!

Published in The Express Tribune, August 8^th, 2023.

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