Foreign policy in a complex global scenario

Comprehending the intricacies of major power relations is no more as simple as it was during the Cold War. Generally, it all depended on which side one was. The Soviet Union for all purposes was an evil empire and the US in the eyes of the former was an exploiter of nations that sought military and economic assistance. There were certain countries that stayed away from major power rivalry and maintained ‘neutrality’ to maximise their national interest. Their neutrality had no moral basis except that it was a policy to make the best of the two worlds. India was the foremost proponent of it and so were a few others.

In the present global environment, the divisions are not that sharp as the relations between the two major rivals, US and China, are more complex and based on a broad canvas of cooperation and well-defined areas of rivalry. Broadly, the cooperation has centred around those segments where the two economies are intertwined and mutually beneficial. With China’s economic power and strategic clout on the rise, the US is taking several measures to dampen it and reduce its dependence especially in critical areas. The change in direction and finding alternative sources within country for special items or developing processes has not been easy and time consuming. However, in the long-term it would make America more self-reliant and strengthen certain segments of technology.

At the strategic level the development of QUAD, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a group of four countries the US, Australia, India and Japan, aims essentially at reducing China’s influence in the region. However, disengaging with China may not be that easy in the short or medium term considering the heavy dependence and benefits that accrue to these countries through mutual trade and commerce and cooperation in certain areas at the regional and global level. It is not surprising that the US is taking measures to reduce tensions with China. Senior US diplomats, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet I Yellen, have been visiting China to ease restrictions on venture capital and investment by US private sector. Chinese leadership fears centre around the possibility that investments and unrestricted opening up of Chinese economy to the US and the West and greater freedom of movement to foreigners may alter the very character of the state and reduce its influence.

Meanwhile, China is not sitting idle and is shifting focus toward new areas of cooperation and expanding its area of influence in the Middle East, Africa and South America. It is also taking counter measures by denying or restricting export of certain critical raw materials to the US.

The current misgivings aside, the US and Chinese leadership realise there is a lot to gain through mutual cooperation. It not only keeps the global economy on a steady and stable course but also for maintaining a peaceful world order. So, it is the conflicting and contradictory aims that demand their astute steering of mutual relations and foreign policy as a whole.

For countries, especially the developing one’s, major power rivalry poses a challenge and an opportunity. For Pakistan, this scenario is not new. Nonetheless, with developing major regional and global alignments and India’s close proximity to the US demands astute handling of foreign policy.

With Pakistan’s economy in deep distress relations with international monetary organisations, the IMF and World Bank, as recent experience reminds us, are equally important. Their attitude apart from other factors depends on how we relate to the US and major powers. We are fortunate that Pakistan has able and experienced foreign service officers and the present foreign minister and the PML-N leaders with the input of the military are steering foreign relations on the right course.

The great challenge for Pakistan however is how to steer and maintain good relations with the US while having a strong strategic and economic relationship with China. The US interest in Pakistan has lessened after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, but still prospects of trade and commerce and Pakistan’s relations with India do evoke interest.

Pakistan’s major regional foreign policy dilemma is a hostile neighbour, India, and an unpredictable neighbour, Afghanistan. Pakistan could review its present policy of not engaging with India unless it revokes orders on the annulment of Article 370 and integration of the State of Kashmir in the Union. This has not helped the Kashmiris as it has provided the BJP government greater freedom to strangulate and suppress the voices of freedom. The US and West that consider themselves as torch bearers of democracy and freedom have been silent on India’s atrocities in Kashmir, further emboldening it. BJP government’s highly discriminatory treatment of Indian Muslims and other minorities is also ignored by the West for expedient considerations. Nothing exposes the shallowness of West’s defence of human rights and promotion of democracy than its policies toward India. Lately, voices within India such as of eminent author and human rights activists Arundhati Roy and others are being raised. It is unlikely that these too will stir the conscience of BJP leadership.

Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan too are facing serious problems essentially due to the Taliban leadership’s misplaced priorities and strong bonds with TTP. Providing a safe haven to TTP that is continuously targeting security forces and trying to establish its writ in border areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan in blatant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is the most ungrateful payback of what Pakistan has done to promote the Taliban leadership. The BJP leadership in India and former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his associates must be viewing these developments gleefully.

There are positive developments taking place in the region. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the establishment of their diplomatic ties is likely to ease tensions and give greater flexibility to neighbours to broaden their economic and political interests. Moreover, if collaboration among regional countries is pursued in right earnest, it will contribute to reducing dependence on major powers and pursuing policies that promote national interests.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 19^th, 2023.

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