Panetta was giving an interview to the ABC network’s “This Week” programme, during which he also said that consistent pressure will “flush out” al Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Laden from his “very deep hiding.”
The nearly nine-year-old war has been “a very tough fight,” he said. “We are making progress. But it’s harder and slower than anyone anticipated.”
Panetta, installed last year as US President Barack Obama’s CIA chief, said “Is the strategy the right strategy? We think so. “I think…the key to success or failure is whether the Afghans accept responsibility, are able to deploy an effective army and police force to maintain stability. If they can do that, then I think we’re going to be able to achieve the kind of progress and the kind of stability that [Obama] is after,” Panetta said.
“There are some serious problems” in Afghanistan, Panetta said. “We’re dealing with tribal societies. We’re dealing with a country that has problems with governance, problems with corruption, problems with narcotics trafficking, problems with a Taliban insurgency,” he said. “This is going to be tough. This is not going to be easy,” he said.
Bin Laden remains “in very deep hiding” in a tribal area in Pakistan surrounded by tremendous security, according to the CIA chief. “The terrain is probably the most difficult in the world,” he added. “But consistent pressure will flush him out.”
While hard data on the world’s most-wanted fugitive has been slight since the 2001 attacks, the CIA and US forces have killed or captured at least half the leadership of the Taliban and al Qaeda.
“We just took down number three in their leadership (Mustafa Abu al-Yazid) a few weeks ago,” Panetta said.
“We continue to disrupt them. We continue to impact on their command and control. We continue to impact on their ability to plan attacks in this country.”
Panetta estimated that al Qaeda’s depleted numbers had shrunk dramatically and said the pressure was definitely on Bin Laden and al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri.
“I think at most, we’re looking at maybe 50 to 100 (al Qaeda members), maybe less,” he said. “If we keep that pressure on, we think ultimately we can flush out bin Laden and Zawahiri and get after them.”
The CIA is also hunting radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaqi, a US-born Yemeni who recently urged all Muslims serving in the US military to kill their comrades and has been linked to several previous attacks, Panetta said.
Panetta also warned that Iran has enough low-enriched uranium to make two weapons, which it could have prepared and ready for delivery as early as 2012. “We think they have enough low-enriched uranium for two weapons,” Panetta told the ABC.
Tehran would need a year to enrich it fully to produce a bomb and it would take “another year to develop the kind of weapon delivery system in order to make that viable,” he said.
“There is a continuing debate right now about whether or not they ought to proceed with a bomb. But they clearly are developing their nuclear capability and that raises concerns,” Panetta said. “Just exactly what are their intentions?”
Neither the US nor its top regional ally Israel, the sole if undeclared nuclear-armed power in the Middle East, have ruled out a military strike to curb Iran’s atomic drive.
“Israel is very concerned about what’s happening in Iran,” Panetta noted. “We continue to share intelligence (with Israel) as to what exactly is Iran’s capacity,” Panetta told ABC, but added that Israel is “willing to give us the room to be able to try to change Iran diplomatically and culturally and politically.”
Tel Aviv, he said, feels “more strongly that Iran has already made the decision to proceed with the bomb, but at the same time they know that sanctions will have an impact.”
The US Congress this week endorsed a sweeping package of tough new energy and financial sanctions on Tehran over the programme, and on June 10 the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1929, which imposes military and financial sanctions on Iran aiming to rein in the suspect nuclear drive.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2010.
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