Forks in the road

William Shirer’s Berlin Diary: The Journal of a Foreign Correspondent, 1934-1941 is a wholly remarkable read. We read many history books. And good ones too. But this one is not even a memoir but a treasure trove of living history. A contemporary record of history as it unravelled. Covering Berlin first for Universal Service and INS and then CBS News right from the rise of Nazis to the first year of WWII, Shirer brought events to life as they happened. I have not listened to his tapes, if they survive today, but read most of his works. And I can vouch for his incredibly gripping penmanship and the immersive experience it offers.

Reading his books, mainly the one mentioned above, one cannot escape the feeling that things could have quickly gone in the opposite or numerous other directions. Remember, with a historian’s twenty-twenty hindsight, you can quickly be assured of the outcome. But it is only through the contemporary works of a journalist that you can understand how raw and uncertain things are as they happen. Perhaps, the help of a novelist might be needed to explore the other possibilities. And we can see how the entertainment industry has tried to explore these possibilities by making TV shows like The Man in the High Castle based on Philip K Dick’s novel.

In South Asia, where reporters are usually embroiled in the coverage of day-to-day scandals, where history is revised with every passing regime, novelists struggle to make a living and TV dramas do not think beyond the power struggles of mothers-in-law and daughters-in-law, exploring the counterfactuals of history is a far cry. But perhaps our imagination can be more creative with the future.

And it is easy. All you need to do is pick a date in the future and ask yourself how things may turn out to be. This date may neither be too far off in the future nor too close to the present. For instance, visualising a thousand years down the lane may be as pointless as thinking about ten years later. What is an appropriate period to test? Thirty years? Sure. Let’s begin.

It seems only fair to focus on politics. Because everything in South Asia is politics. Cricket is politics; trade is politics; economics is politics; even religion is politics. So why would my beloved country be any different? We Pakistanis are hardwired to obsess about politics. Consider how easily political content on television drowns out other content, including entertainment.

We are on the cusp of a great change. As what is now known as Project Imran Khan faltered, the then-outgoing army chief made an unprecedented public statement regarding the army’s desire to distance itself from politics and respect the democratic process. Consequences? A long march to block the nomination of his successor. When that failed, on May 9, an attack on military installations, infrastructure and even the monuments dedicated to martyrs to punish the army for not intervening in the political process on behalf of the ousted party. Yeah, I know the trigger was Mr Khan’s arrest. But make no mistakes. The party in question threatened to do the same one day before his ouster. In fact, on April 10, 2022, a rehearsal was carried out in the name of protests where law enforcement convoys were attacked and vehicles vandalised. The ouster was the root of rage, not the arrest. Ouster through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. How is that for the butterfly effect?

But back to our simulation. Where do we go from here? That depends on which turn we take. For instance, did you know there is no shortage of people on both sides of the political divide craving for yet another martial law? Remember that leaked audio where an influential lady close to the law complains to her friend that the authorities are not ready to impose martial law? Likewise, in private conversations, backbenchers of every party mutter about how messy the next election would be and perhaps a short-lived military rule could save their bacon. That’s not all. When the incumbent army chief reportedly told the participants of a workshop that there had been enough martial laws already and then turned it into a question to solicit the audience’s endorsement of the statement, the response of the hall full of diverse civilians was lukewarm. Go figure.

But if the army eventually succumbs to this pressure, would things be different thirty years later? Good question, grasshopper. But the simple answer is negative. Do you think the past martial laws were imposed deliberately to keep the country backward? Of course not.

Do you know what is the most beautiful thing about democracy? That every government comes to power with a finite term in office. That means no matter how good or bad a government is, it has to return to the people for a fresh mandate after its limited term in office. This turnover makes evolution possible. But that’s where things go awry. Populist leaders either want to tilt the field and rig the system in their favour before the next election or then continue much, much beyond the cut-off date. From Trump to Khan, this factor is evident everywhere. It used to be a third-world thing, but sadly it has proliferated globally.

But imagine if politicians could best their impulse to dominate others, moderate their attitudes, learn to coexist with their opponents and this cycle continued for thirty years. Do you think the country would not become a stable democracy? Distortions are distortions whether they come from the military, the judiciary or the politicians. Only the exercise to remove the old distortions should not be misconstrued as an attempt to introduce new ones, as some spinmeisters would like you to believe.

Now, the nub of the gist of the problem. Economy. Another fork in the road. After heroic efforts by the prime minister, the army chief and their teams, the country is back in the IMF programme. But we only barely made it through the review. We still have nine months to go. Any backsliding and you might end up with financial ruin. Now think of two Pakistans. One which has reformed its economy following the programme and has seen economic growth for thirty years. And the other which hasn’t. Which one will you want to live in?

The forks in the road we now encounter are the choices between what is easy and what is right. Shirer’s book has already illustrated what happens when a nation opts for what is easy, not what is right. What is the point of history if we can’t even learn from it?

Something needs to be said about peace with neighbours and trade liberalisation, but we will have that discussion another time.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, July 8^th, 2023.

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