Thucydides trap and Pakistan

If you ask me the biggest issue with Pakistan’s foreign policy throughout its history has been and still is that it is too eager. Yes, too keen. Explanations abound. Is it not the common trait of all children of trauma that they hang on to every word that comes out of your mouth, noticing your every facial tick as if looking for early signs of trouble to pre-empt, cajole, coax and retreat into protective walls to escape pain and grief?

Another explanation. Our origin story. As per Ayesha Jalal the case of a severed limb that was asked to grow an entire body. And it did too but could never do a great job of it. This in comparison to India which only had to replace a severed limb and never stop bullying the limb that got away. The insecurities of this body that was poorly grown could be an explanation.

Then the final one. The perpetual financial vulnerability. When your entire life struggle is about keeping your head above water you haemorrhage leverage all the time. So, what do you do? You sell the most valuable assets for peanuts. Use it or lose it. Right? And you market your strengths unimaginatively not realising that flaunting your jewellery in a market full of powerful bandits is just asking for robbery. Savvy?

At any rate, in this maddening rush to pick sides what this country has consistently overlooked is its true strength. There is something about this nation that ensures every time it takes a side the victory greets its camp. Take two examples. The cold war and the war on terror. Without Pakistan, these wars could never be won. Do you want to know the secret sauce? Geography? Minerals? Nukes? Nah. Its people. Yeah, leaders and soldiers are people too. We are a crazy bunch of mavericks. You keep looking at what we have done to ourselves. You ignore what we have done to our arch-rival India, which seems too eager to mimic what we were doing in the 1980s. To quote one of my favourite lines from Music from Another Room: What have I done to you? You sound just like me.

So, if given some time this crazy bunch of mavericks can achieve anything it sets its mind to. It must take an ungodly effort by our detractors to keep us lost in minutiae.

When not selling itself short in haste Pakistan accomplished some unimaginable miracles on the way. Take the example of the Pakistan-China relationship which bloomed in the middle of the cold war and right when the country’s first military ruler had taken it to SEATO and CENTO. Imagine positioning yourself as a bulwark against Soviet communism and ending up winning over a socialist nation as your best buddy. That’s not all. You bring China and America closer by serving as the bridge.

Another miracle. Our Iran policy during the so-called Afghan Jihad. Remember not only was Pakistan the most allied ally of the US and the Arab world in the fight against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan but, if George Crile’s assertion in Charlie Wilson’s War: The Extraordinary Story of the Largest Covert Operation in History is to be accepted, dealing closely with Israel as well. Just to jog your memory at that time Iran and Iraq were locked in a long war and the latter was being supported by the Arab world. Do you really think there wasn’t any pressure on Pakistan to spoil its relationship with Iran? This then was a feat of remarkable foresight.

Pakistan’s relationship with Iran would be tested again and again. First, immediately after the imposition of nuclear sanctions when both countries had to pretend to be perfect strangers. Second, at the start of the recent Yemen war. It is the latter that merits some attention.

When the Yemen war began there was incredible pressure on Pakistan to send its troops to the war-torn country and take an open stance against Iran’s policy there. Remember after the seismic shocks of the Arab Spring, there was incredible anger among the Arab leadership against Iran. This despite the fact that the Arab Spring had cut both ways and had unhinged Syria, a crucial Iranian ally, as well. But we were being asked to take sides.

Every time a Pakistani leader asked me for some advice I insisted we keep away from the conflict, only offer forces in a defensive capacity to protect the two holy mosques and suggest acting as the mediator between Iran and the Arab world. As was predicted by some pundits at the time, our offers of mediation were rebuffed. However since a similar effort by China seems to have borne fruit, I can say with confidence that the idea was sound, only our Arab brethren did not think much of us.

And you can forgive them for behaving arrogantly. We, too, had done something incredibly stupid. We took the matter to the parliament. The session that turned into an open mic night was broadcasted live internationally. This resulted in widespread anger among the Arab leaders. The then Foreign Minister of the UAE even threatened Pakistan with dire consequences in a public statement. Since then every time the country is in a financial bind and it seeks a bailout it is told to mend fences with India. Touché!

When Pakistan isn’t messing things up for itself and is not rushing into fights that are not even properly developed, it can exude remarkable foresight. Partnering with China on CPEC is one more example.

When push comes to shove, this talk of an imminent US-China cold war and Thucydides trap is just talk. Both nations are certainly hedging right now. But they have much too much to lose if they decouple. And all these policy papers about them being arch-rivals are just a thousand shapes lobbying takes when in action. No matter what you think America is not declining as the superpower, and China sees no incentive in replacing it as a global power. Both countries have a historically unique outlook on life. One sees itself as the beacon of universal liberal values. The other as the middle kingdom, which is unique but not universal. And after we saw India’s response to China’s BRI we can rest easy. India had once in a lifetime shot at coming up with something ingenious. It came up with Adani. Call Hindenburg Research if in doubt. Modi hai to mumkin hai.

So what do you do when you are asked to pick a side? Roll your eyes, duck crossfire and hope that the insanity will be over soon. This after all isn’t a sibling rivalry like India and Pakistan or China and Japan. It is a genuine lover’s quarrel. And those who take quarrelling lovers at face value do not amount to much.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 17^th, 2023.

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