Generals of Sudan

For protection of their vital interests, world community will ensure that there is no peace nor any progress for Sudan

It is heart-breaking to pick your pen up to write on Sudan. This country got its independence from British occupier only in 1956, but even before freedom came, the First Sudanese Civil War (1955-72) had started. With barely a decade of peace in between, the nation was dragged into the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) that resulted in the separation of South Sudan in 2011; and then the civil crisis that started with protests in 2019, ended with the ouster of Omar al-Bashir and the setting of the transitional government.

Sadly, that is not all, in the south, the Kordofan region remained broiled in war between 2011 and 2020; the Darfur War has gone on between 2003 and 2020; and even South Sudan has had its own civil war between 2013 and 2020. Even when there are truces and stalemate within these wars, the situations remain volatile and unpredictable.

Though deaths and displacements are common features of these wars, Darfur has also seen a grave genocide, wherein government forces killed around 400,000 Darfuris. The force used by Omar al-Bashir, a general himself, in the Darfur Conflict was the Janjaweed, a militia force that had previously been active in Chad and Libya, and later in the Yemen War. And General Hamdan Dagalo Hemedti was its commander.

Later the force was renamed Rapid Support Force (RSF). Another general that commanded the regular army in the Darfur front, and in the Second Sudanese Civil War, that saw around 2.5 million deaths, due to war, displacements and starvation, was Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. So, when Arab Spring 2.0 broke out again in 2018-22 in several MENA states, the FFC Alliance started agitating for democracy and economic equality in Sudan, resulting in al-Bashir’s ouster. The problem with these Spring movements is that they are barely indigenous.

In Sudan’s case, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) does not make it a secret how it has been awarding, funding and training groups with hundreds of young people across Sudan on “democracy” and activism, like the Regional Centre for Development and Training, the Nuba Women for Education and Development Association and the Darfur Bar Association, among others in the 2019 Revolution. Again, the problem with foreign-funded revolutions is that their leaders lack self-owned or people-owned agendas, and fuse down as soon as the funding is switched off.

This is the reason why once al-Bashir was ousted, there was hardly any force left in the FFC, probably because the funding parties were now looking for new spaces in the transitional set-up. Where is the FFC alliance when Hamdok has been ousted? Where were they when the Generals were snatching back the power? How were they over-aggressive for al-Bashir and now passive for Burhan and Hemedti? So, all that goes on wrong in Sudan is not just of their own doing, one should reckon that this underdeveloped country is a strategic pivot for a lot of regional and global players.

Russia and the UAE want to have port-bases on Sudan’s long coast on the Red Sea, to balance out the dozens of foreign bases in Djibouti and Eritrea. They and Saudi Arabia are thought to be particularly close to the RSF and Hemedti, especially since he sent forces to fight against the Houthis in Yemen some years ago. Hemedti’s closeness to Russia was shown when he flew to Moscow a day after the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Burhan has been aligned with al-Sisi since before the 2019 coup; in fact he was in Egypt one day before the coup was announced. Burhan and members of Sudanese military are regularly trained in Egypt. In the recent fighting, Egyptian soldiers were captured by RSF forces in Sudan; Egypt responded by saying they were only ‘conducting training’.

US attempt to place its man, Hamdok, in power in 2019 however failed. Hamdok had been at a senior position at Deloitte, and later was the Regional Director for Africa and the Middle East of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an organisation that works exactly on the lines of NED. But it seems none of Sudan’s neighbours were interested in US-style democracy, and each opted for one of the generals. However, this wasn’t the first time the US interfered in the country: the Americans and their friend Israel have been on the Sudan-mission since long.

In Gamal Nasser’s time, when there was an air that Sudan might opt for a united state with Egypt, Israel backed Anyanya leader Josheph Lagu with arms and training to fuel the civil war in Sudan. Later in the Darfur front, Small Arms Survey reported that Israel had smuggled in machine guns, RPGs, mortars and newly produced Israeli TAR-21 assault rifles, via Chad. For Israel, unity and strength of its Arab neighbourhood is an existential matter.

It would not want to see a strong Sudan with an independent foreign policy under either of the Generals – especially a Sudan backed by either the UAE or Saudi Arabia or Egypt, when each of them are floating towards the China/Russia camp; nor a Sudan that would allow Russia a base on its coast, a base where the Wagner group would get a station to conduct its operations inside Africa, the Africa that has long been plundered and looted by the West for free. Whatever the case of foreign interventions in Sudan, the sad truth is that the language of foreign policy and governance for Sudan has been and will be made from the vocabulary of weapons, dollars, battles, raids, rapes and refugees – there would never be an option of people-based nation building. Sadly, all the fertility of the Nile will not be used to feed the Sudanese nor will the oil from beneath their soil be used for their progress.

For the protection of their vital interests, the world community will ensure that there is no peace nor any progress for Sudan. With more internal conflicts and civil wars, stakeholders have and may further work to Balkanise Sudan into more pieces. Time will show if Sudan can avert foreign interests and use its strategic location for the welfare and progress of its own people or it will remain a crown jewel of Africa, a game to be won by competitors!