People want elections sooner than later

Isn’t it strange that Pakistan’s media and politicians give little importance to opinion polls and research, while all over the world examining voting behaviour is taken very seriously because its findings help understand underlying causes of political choices. It also educates politicians, civil society actors and media about possible risks and opportunities, and their scale. These critical datasets and analyses are then used to correct strategy and adjust tactics. Sadly, in Pakistan our politicians believe in wealth and power than scientific knowledge to win elections or ‘hearts and minds’ of the people. As a result, importance of social sciences has seriously declined in the country. Media, especially electronic, could have played an important role to reverse the situation but due to certain reasons it couldn’t.

This article intends to make a humble attempt to sensitise the readers about the importance of opinion polls. Though many opinion polls have been conducted since last April, I am using findings of three major pollsters — Gallup Pakistan, IRIS as well as PATTAN with whom I am associated. Recent opinion polls, editorials and opinion pieces in newspapers and analyses of political experts aired on TV reveal an ever-increasing synchronisation of views on existential risks that the people and the state of Pakistan are facing, the causes they find, and the solutions they propose. And above all the rating they give to major political leaders.

First and foremost is that a large majority of the surveyed people — whether factory workers or owners, vendors, officers, writers, men and women — want elections sooner than later. Some 72% of IRIS survey respondents expect justice from the superior judiciary regarding holding of elections in Punjab and KP. PATTAN’s poll also ascertained opinion of the respondents on the Supreme Court order to hold election to the dissolved assembly of Punjab on 30^th April. Isn’t it encouraging that 79% of the respondents agree to the superior court decision and reject the ECP decision?

This unanimity of views across all segments of society and findings of all opinion polls regarding relationship between economics and politics or political economy of the current crises and beyond also exist. No wonder 62% of the respondents of Gallup Pakistan opinion poll (released in March 23) “blamed PDM rather than PTI for the current meltdown”. PATTAN’s survey, conducted in the first week of April, also probed liability of the current crises. It also asked the respondents to prioritise major problems they are facing. Almost 50% mentioned unemployment, price hike and insecurity; 25% pointed at corrupt elite; and 20% said socio-political turmoil. Though 48% of our respondents blamed PDM-PPP for the current crises; 22% pointed finger at the establishment; and 11% blamed PTI. Interestingly, Gallup’s survey shows 38% respondents blaming PTI for the meltdown.

Ninth Gallup Business Confidence Index as reported in The Express Tribune also found unprecedented uncertainty amongst business community. Not strange. Like the public, most businessmen also categorise ever-rising inflation as a major problem. It also says “90% of businesses surveyed believe country is headed in the wrong direction”.

Regarding popularity of political leaders or parties, almost all surveys show Imran Khan or PTI as the most popular leader/party. The IRIS survey released in early April shows that 56% of respondents would vote for PTI, 16% for PML-N and just 1% for PPP or Zardari. In the Gallup poll, Imran Khan’s “positive and negative rating appears to be 61% and 37%” respectively. For leaders of the ruling coalition i.e. Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto, inverse is likely to be true. PATTAN’s survey though shows similar trends, the popularity gap between PTI and PDM-PPP is larger than the other polls. For instance, 71% respondents were likely to vote for PTI should election take place now, while only 17% opted for PDM parties. Our survey also tried to find out reasons of popularity of parties. Contrary to dominant perception, more respondents (almost half) mentioned party programme, its struggle for just system and past performance than the party leader.

In short, despite variation in rate of popularity, all three polls establish that PTI was likely to be the most popular party at the time of surveys. Most likely this trend is going to persist in near future.

Even free distribution of wheat flour which was perceived to have magic impact on voting behaviour of the recipients appears to be failing to provide any political benefit to PDM or PML-N. PATTAN survey results show 80% of respondents saying, “it will have no impact”. Interestingly, 52% of those who said they would vote for PML-N believed free wheat flour distribution would not provide any benefit to PDM parties. No wonder the ruling coalition is bent upon delaying general elections by any means.

The rulers must realise that the delay in election has cost them heavily. This trend is likely to persist in coming months if the PDM leadership continues to ignore the writing on the wall — hold election now rather than later. They seem to be convinced that they can reshape opinions of the public through propaganda or by making institutions controversial or by pitting them against each other. It has not worked before, and it is likely to be true tomorrow too. Because miseries such as unemployment and price hike is more powerful than the propaganda. The opinion polls also establish that. A large majority think early election would bring stability and end uncertainties and who would echo their pain is likely to be their political choice.

Therefore, it is highly important to highlight the core message of the above-mentioned opinion polls. I think it is a rare occurrence that the people have not only expressed their political choices categorically but also their resolve to have early election and their support to the superior judiciary at a time when the elites are highly polarised and fighting each other like enemies. These undercurrents have been suppressed from surfacing, thanks to the deafening noise of propaganda and malicious efforts of certain parties and crony intellectuals who are beating drums of polarisation out of proportion. People have spoken their mind without any ifs and buts through opinion polls. Now let them speak through the ballot paper.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 17^th, 2023.

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