Helsinki’s gamble

Finland’s joining of NATO will soon prove to be an act of brinkmanship. Helsinki had kept its strategic cool for decades, and had resolved to maintain an era of military non-alignment, and it had served its national interests very well. But it seems the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and an unending year-long war has compelled it to think otherwise, and its unfurling of the flag at Brussels as the 31^st member of western military alliance will surely up the geostrategic ante. Finland’s geographical position is too vulnerable to stand any onslaught from the Kremlin, and it remains to be seen whether this gamble turns out to be a Waterloo for it, or a roulette for Moscow to further its jingoistic designs.

This policy shift will have repercussions for many others in the volatile region. Kyiv had flaunted the same sentiments as it inched towards Brussels after its Orange Revolution, but was stopped half way as Moscow invaded Crimea, and scuttled its ambitions to go west. Finland’s choice has come at a disturbing and unpleasant moment of history, as Ukraine is literally under occupation, and the mighty US and its military muscle, NATO, have not been able to bail it out from Russia’s ulterior designs, despite pouring in more than $20 billion of armament. Thus, Helsinki could have a lot of political point-scoring to do at home and in Europe, but in the long run it is surely exposed to instability and external threat.

NATO’s designs to expand eastward have touched its fulcrum. It has been unmindful of Russian ambitions and geopolitical desires as it embraced Finland, and this will have a strategic cost to pay. The thrust of the US-led alliance should have been on liberating Ukraine from the Red Army, and positioning it as an independent country. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s utterance that “war has returned to Europe and Finland has decided to join NATO and be part of the world’s most successful alliance” will draw ire. It has simply cemented Moscow’s concerns that NATO and EU are bent upon encroaching its influence in the region.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 6^th, 2023.

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