While we fiddle

I read another masterpiece this week by the most ardent and the most prophetic futurist of our times, Yuval Noah Hariri, the author of Sapiens and Homo Deus. By now everyone conversant with English language has a copy even if those wait to be read. Hariri is an Israeli Jew and originally writes in Hebrew which then translates into English. He can write exceptionally well in English too and moves within mediums. His latest is a concise article on GPT-4 the AI Chatbot that everyone is speaking to and relating to us in their terms. 
 

This is what Hariri says (I paraphrase): ‘Human civilization has an operating system called Language, through which they share values, beliefs and aspirations over generations giving rise to what we today term the civilized world. Regardless of what God you believe in, or what culture you belong to, or what to you is of immense value in human development, or who you love, your hopes and fears, you are sure to have coined, formed and used some combination of words in a language to share, express, advise or convey the sentiment to another human.

Language is the operating system through which we narrate, relate and profess. Prophets, poets and politicians (note the composition) formulate and sell their dreams in words and languages to people and help create cultures where humans forge common purpose and common cause as societies, nations and cultures. Hariri then proposes, ‘what if this operating system was taken over by another entity which over time could learn and then dominate the control, sense and emotion in a language to begin to command the same societies and cultures through infusion of differently intended emotion, aspiration, belief or a religion?’ He believes, unless bridled, humankind is about to lose control of its operating system to AI led GPT-4 and its later versions’.

Technology will inevitably lead to mimicking man, especially his brain, as computing powers quadruple with amazing speed with its own derivative benefits but then Hariri also points to the need to control the power and the speed of the computed BOT regardless of the purpose it is assigned. I guess his biggest concern is with the speed of development which in the backdrop of a brewing cold war between China and the USA is being sacrificed to be the first past the post. In his piece for the NYT, he relates various Sci-Fi movies – where extra-terrestrials or Sci-Fi characters freely roam the streets of our cities – which could soon be a reality if not impeded. It might begin with objects first but will surely progress to forms more natural to humankind, who may control our traffic or keep peace, or if gone haywire and berserk, start wars. 

Hariri poses three different examples. When computers were weak, Chess grandmasters Bobby Fischer and Gary Kasparov, both defeated Deep Blue. Not now, Hariri says. It’s impossible. Next social media, based only on iterations within human domain and without any AI intervention yet to manipulate data, voice or emotion, when stood against humanity has already won.

Social and political polarisation, turmoil and markets have all lost to social media. In the very recent case of a failed Bank in the US, SVB, one particular Thursday as few workers of the Bank chatted on open Media about the risks and the state of the Bank, 42 billion USDs were taken out in a matter of only a few hours. FinTech will soon make an even more resolute, resilient and abiding entry, changing forever how money is perceived, transferred or operated. Open AI could play havoc in what are termed safer and more stress-tested Banks.

The third relates to how politics has been and will be impacted. Per Hariri the 2028 US Presidential election will be totally run by AI. How and in what form will perhaps take shape but it is prudent to go to the 2016 experience and note how just the social media and a very limited iterative artificial intelligence minds and opinions were tampered to vote a certain way. Surely, 2020 would not have been any different. But 2028, unless managed, harnessed and bridled, AI will decide who the winner will be.

Frankenstein? Scary.  

Hariri worries how geopolitics is underwriting these major revolutions in civilization and future of humanity. USA’s 2022 CHIPS Act is the first manifestation of how nations have stepped on the way to a war in the technological domain. China, surely, has its own strategy. PEGASUS tramples fundamental rights. Operation Olympic Games was among the first kinetic operations in cyberspace which ceased Iranian nuclear programme causing major fires. American Banks, water supply systems, electrical grids and air traffic management systems have been under frequent attack by forces inimical to the US.

FinTech will soon open the world to alternate financial system hitherto dominated and regulated by American control of the USD and SWIFT Banking system. Already, in very conventional terms, Russia and China are encouraging the world to trade in alternate currencies. FinTech will write its own rules; hence, the deliberate slowing of its full introduction to retain the US dollar-based order for as long as it can hold. 
 

The world is galloping into neo-existence. Men like Hariri who see the future warn us of it. A Chinese doctor and researchist had to be jailed and shut down because he had touched the zenith of manipulating human DNA to market customized kids to parents. Someone felt it was too early to control the consequences of tampering with nature. In South Korea they are already toying with the thought of building emotion into a BOT which could alternate for family members and hold the hand of an older member to mimic emotion and comfort.  

We, in our own isolated nook, aren’t yet decided whether democracy is better served by putting elections off or by holding elections when they are due. Language at its best is inventing facts to suit each side’s political agenda. All that Hariri and his ilk say is farthest from what contends this nation of 220 million souls who may soon be thrust into an environment where they will be at the mercy of forces beyond their comprehension. Those who rule over them don’t care what will buffet or how much, or if the banks will still stand. They might worry about how the banks abroad will do because that is where their assets are but when a tsunami of developing forces will shape a new era in civilization perishing the ill-informed in their native lands, their contract too to rule over them will cease. Final rites are being played out in the Supreme Court.

Hum jo taareek rahon mein maray gaye
Tere honton ke phoolon ki chahat mein hum
Daar ki khushk tehni pe varay gaye

Published in The Express Tribune, March 31^st, 2023.

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