Army, elections and stability

The military needs to prevail upon the government to announce an election date strictly in line with the constitution

The readers’ feedback on my article ‘Polarised, poisoned and problematic’ last week was overwhelming. Political signaling is mixed and confused with PTI and PDM following an on/off approach to dialogue and rapprochement. The Military, badly bruised and stung by the continued tirade against its leadership, is on the defensive and justifiably angry, dismayed and offended. And in a situation where the ‘umpire’ is compromised and/or unwilling to assert, a way forward for political stability is next to impossible. In our ‘patronage-addicted’ political culture, it is the Military that intervenes, intercedes and negotiates continuation of the ‘System’. This may be to the chagrin of supporters of ‘Military-out Approach’, but this sadly remains the undeniable ground reality.

In the absence of Military’s visible and not very visible interlocution, the political actors are entrenched in their old ways, playing silly games of politics with smallness and pettiness prominently at display. While the country is tanking down, especially its economy. And all the muck for any acts of omissions and commission by the PDM government is thrown at the Military’s doorstep, in addition to the ubiquitous accusations and filibustering by Imran Khan. In a sinister scheme, it suits the PTI-PDM combine to pressurise and humiliate the Military. For PDM, this ensures Military’s hands-off neutrality and apolitical position or pliant posture, allowing PDM to play political games and run affairs of the state as it deems fit. And for PTI sustained anti-army tirade keeps Imranism politically alive. Consequently, every Tom, Dick and Harry takes pot shots at the Military and its leadership for any real or perceived grievances and inadequacies, and interestingly gets away with it.

The PTI cabal exhibits duplicitous contradictions. Publicly urging the Military to remain apolitical, it solicits change of posture by the Army’s new leadership to intercede with the PDM and get an election date. While the PDM, after effectively containing the PTI’s May 25, 2022 rally, under the no-quarters-given policy of Ustad Sanaullah, erroneously thinks, it can deal with Imranism, and the polarising sentiment in the country, that is on the rise.

Taking over reins of the country at a crucial juncture last year in an engineered vote of no confidence, and under sloganeering that continuation of Imran regime then was inimical to the national economy, PDM’s own year-long performance is sub-par and disastrously inept. All major indicators are red. Stagflation is at a record high. And had it not been for our sizeable informal economy, the country would have been in the worst fiscal situation and supply-chain problems. PDM’s real motives were soon revealed by their dismantling of the NAB architecture, clearing cases against them, and launching budding scions like Bilawal Zardari Bhutto at the federal level. That youthful foreign minister is creating bonhomie with countries of no diplomatic significance to Pakistan, at great cost to our impoverished exchequer.

For the Military, a ‘silent-spectator-approach’ will never yield results. Contrary to the detractors, this country is addicted to sometimes behind-the-scenes and sometimes overt interlocution by the Military. All politicians, despite their public bluster, yearn for Military patronage, guidance and support. With apologies to my academic friends espousing great theories of civil-military relations, this is the naked reality of Pakistan’s political culture. Arguments for and against are aplenty. And if this culture must change (as it should), it must change overtime, not in a time of crisis like this. So, in a nutshell, from the Military’s standpoint, the situation cannot go on like this. Simple time-tested linkages of political instability with deteriorating economy, and economy with worsening national security argue against passivity and inaction. This contradiction of ‘wanting but not wanting’ the Military to intercede is as old as the country itself, and we have to live with it.

The newly injected factor in the above construct is the Army’s deteriorating public image and perception. It started with the Military acting against public expectations and pulse, perhaps for the first time, under the previous Army leadership, with one event leading to the other. Inability to comprehend the dynamics, and then explain and articulate its decisions to the public further compounded the Military’s situation. And as repeatedly mentioned, PTI’s short-sighted leadership sensing an opportunity for political revival by owing, encouraging and propagating its anti-Army tirade went full throttle in attack by its IT-savvy youth brigade. The rest, as they say, is history.

The above discussion leads to one critical conclusion: that of reviving the umpire. This effectively means resuscitation of Military’s dented repute and redeeming the office of the COAS. And thankfully in our ‘one-event dependent’ political culture, this is possible.

Some pointers would fortify this argument. Even friendly countries do not deal with Pakistan’s present dispensation with traditional amity. IMF is foot-dragging on its bailout package by constantly changing the goalposts. Even if it is construed to be pressurising Pakistan to compromise on its nuclear programme, as touted, why must friendly countries be frosty towards us? The underlying cause seems to be the deeply non-representative character of the present government and its very evident non-popularity. All the external stakeholders would — rationally and naturally — want to deal with a stable and representative Pakistani government.

So, the pressing need for the Military is to prevail upon the government to ‘announce’ an election date strictly in line with the Constitution. All elections must be held on designated days across the country, and unnecessary spending on conducting elections in two provinces and/or by-elections be avoided. This, besides quelling uncertainty, will redeploy PTI guns in electioneering mode, sparing targeting of the Military, in itself a mean and unpatriotic activity.

The theory of not handing over the country to a second Imran Khan experiment, after failure of the first, stands overtaken by PDM’s own greed to unseat a politician already on ventilator, and without any plan to deal with the financial woes, that now haunt PDM’s wizards like Dar, the Great. Managing pro-Imran tiding through ‘election management’ would also be catastrophic. I am copying the last lines of my column published on 23 February 2023:

“…if Imran Khan ‘is to be failed’, let him fail in governance after he wins the next election. In any case, PTI has no line of succession, no clear plan, and no charisma minus the combative Khan.”

Right now, unfortunately there are no better alternatives other than announcing elections, and observing sanctity of Ramazan, unlike the last year. Happy fasting.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 23^rd, 2023.

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