‘The Security Imperative’

The recent launch of book ‘The security imperative — Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy’ authored by Ambassador Zamir Akram aroused considerable interest amongst the audience. It is indeed a valuable addition to describing Pakistan’s journey to become a nuclear power. Zamir Akram has served as Pakistan’s Ambassador in several important capitals and as permanent representative at the IAEA and has a wealth of experience in dealing with strategic and nuclear issues.

A distinguished panel consisting of General Kidwai, Senator Javed Jabbar and Dr Masuma Hasan commented on the book that gave depth to the discussion and made the event interesting. The general consensus among the speakers as well as the audience, as reflected in the question-answer session, was that our nuclear capability has been a vital component of our defence capability. In its absence, India would have certainly taken advantage of its numerical conventional strength and kept Pakistan under duress. It is logical to assume that in essence nuclearisation has been a critical balancer against India. It has largely offset the disadvantage we have due to a smaller conventional force and acted as a check against India’s adventurism. And with Modi as India’s PM any untoward development cannot be ruled out. In addition, Pakistan being the only nuclear power among the Muslim nations does carry a certain weight, even if due to other adverse factors it has been largely diminished.

Ambassador Zamir acknowledged the extraordinary contribution of former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto towards making Pakistan a nuclear state against heavy odds. There is no doubt that Bhutto supported the programme with utmost dedication, defended it at the international level and removed bottlenecks and bureaucratic hurdles domestically. Perhaps one of the major reasons why he fell out of favour with the US and the West was his unflinching resolve to make Pakistan a nuclear state.

Another aspect that needs to be highlighted is that the success of the nuclear programme was due to the valuable contribution of our scientists and engineers who, in several areas, had to start from scratch. And they faced considerable hurdles during the design and manufacturing stage due to the stringent sanctions. Our allied defence industries and even the private sector played a useful supportive role when needed. What is generally not fully grasped by our political elite that the race in weaponry, be it conventional, nuclear or AI, is continuous and broad based. If Pakistan has to defend its frontiers apart from other factors, it will have to be cognizant of the role science and technology plays in modern warfare.

Moreover, prudence demands that we should not be over-reliant on our nuclear capability, as it is a weapon of last resort and never to be used. In essence nations that are politically stable, economically sound and have national strategic consensus do benefit far more from the additional advantage of being nuclear capable. Regrettably, our leaders are oblivious to this hard reality. As a nuclear power, bereft of these attributes, internally divisive with political parties at loggerheads, and largely depended on foreign assistance to keep its economy afloat, the country is depriving itself to a great extent the power and prestige that it would have otherwise enjoyed. Our political leadership needs to be reminded that sound and stable economic conditions are a prerequisite to strengthen defence of the country and maximise the overall advantage of being a nuclear state.

A worst-case scenario of this reality is manifest when we look at the vast difference between North and South Korea. One is impoverished, led by a brutal dictator but armed to the teeth of nuclear weapons and missiles. The other is a booming economy with a satisfied population, rated as 5^th out of 39 countries in the Asia-Pacific region with an overall score above the world and regional averages. It has a strong conventional force and is a progressive democratic country. With its educated and satisfied polity and positive attributes it has raised its national profile. Of course, every country has its own defence dynamic but what is clear is that a strong defence apart from a well-equipped conventional or even nuclear armed force is best served when the elements of its national power are balanced. Among our political leadership there seems to be scant realisation of this. True, we raise the nuclear card to warn India from any misadventure but we could have raised our national prestige and profile too if we had given due attention to governance and political stability.

As a responsible nuclear power to avoid any chaos in the country it is necessary that the government announce a firm date of national elections within the stipulated timeframe as mandated by the constitution, and let the political party or parties enjoying the maximum support of the people govern. Any departure from this basic prerequisite of a democratic right of people would be inviting further disaster and making a laughing stock of the nation. Merely suppressing the opponents is akin to placing a lid on a volcano. In addition, this delay and uncertainty about elections is lowering country’s image and spreading despondency among its people. Moreover, it is commonsense that the country at this critical time should have a government that enjoys the confidence of its people so that it could take difficult decisions. In the present situation the power structure has neither the capacity nor support to steer the country.

A nuclear state needs to be more sensitive, and present defence and strategic complexities demand that political leadership avoid chaos and anarchy. The present confrontation between the government and the opposition does not augur well for the country. Semi anarchic conditions have given an opportunity to skeptics and ill-wishers to exaggerate the fallout and raise questions about the safety and security of nuclear assets, knowing full well that Pakistan is wholly complaint with IAEA standards and has one of the more sophisticated and foolproof systems to protect and guard its assets. And there has never been any compromise on its safety.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, March 22^nd, 2023.

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