Intolerable tides

With ecological disruption in place comes an intolerable tide of people, forced to become refugees. In the future, more refugees will be created by climate change, not war. Since 2018, a whopping 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by climate-induced disasters such as floods, storms, wildfires and extreme temperatures. While climate trauma sees no boundaries, most shockwaves are now felt in developing countries — which have contributed little to nothing to the climate crisis we face today.

The number of climate refugees in Pakistan is expected to skyrocket from 680,000 in 2020 to a whopping 2 million by 2050. Communities in vulnerable situations, children, women, persons with disabilities and those living in climate hotspots are disproportionately at risk from adverse impacts of accelerated climate change. With fast melting glaciers, torrential rains and floods becoming the norm, massive scale climate-displacement remains on the cards.

Bangladesh, also called Asia’s next tiger, remains one of the most vulnerable countries to accelerated climate change. According to World Bank, more than 19 million people in Bangladesh will become internal climate refugees by the end of 2050. Around 2000 climate-displaced people move to Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, on a daily basis. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) states that around 70% of Dhaka’s slum-dwellers moved there fleeing some sort of environmental shock. The question is: for how long will Dhaka, which is already overpopulated, host climate refugees?

Another South Asian country which is most vulnerable to climate-induced displacement is Maldives. Located in the Indian Ocean, Maldives is the world’s lowest-lying nation, which indicates that rising sea levels and soil erosion threaten its very existence. According to the World Economic Forum, more than 80% of the country’s land area lies at less than one metre above sea level. Rising seas will force out millions to leave their homes, inevitably creating a massive climate refugee crisis.

While South Asia’s humanitarian crisis is expected to quadruple with the making of climate refugees, another region which faces the same fate is Africa. With extreme weather temperatures and lack of rainfall, the African continent is facing record-breaking droughts on a daily basis. With limited resources, fierce competition between local communities is out in the open. What’s more disturbing is that violence between Boko Haram, a terrorist organisation, and the Nigerian state has dwindled agriculture production since 2009, sparking a major humanitarian crisis. Ecological disruption, Boko Haram’s extremist moves, extreme hunger, disease and poverty are converging on an already vulnerable community in the Lake Chad region.

As climate change gains momentum with chronic droughts and loss of agriculture activities, more Somalians are moving towards piracy, violence in the Gulf of Aden region. Somalia’s once thriving illegal fishing industry also witnesses a bleak future. Over the last 50 years, the world has lost half of its coral reefs. It is crucial to point out that around 30% of the world’s fisheries depend on coral reefs. With the fish count on a downward trajectory, Somalia inevitably faces a huge dent in its fishing industry, which is now forcing locals to move towards piracy. With piracy becoming common and fisheries on the decline, Somalia is moving towards a massive humanitarian crisis. It is evident that accelerated climate change is quadrupling the number of climate refugees, who now look towards counterproductive means, such as piracy, as a source of livelihood.

Today’s ignored climate emergency is the most defining crisis of our time, impacting every region across the planet. Accelerated climate change is driving displacement and exacerbating the vulnerability of those already forced to flee. Governments and policymakers must invest in preparedness to mitigate future protection needs and prevent further climate caused displacement. We’ve already witnessed destructive climate-induced disasters. Waiting isn’t an option anymore.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 22^nd, 2023.

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