After the dissolution

Economic indices are nosedived, and are not picking up to piecemeal gestures of cash injections. It seems the prime concern of investors and the business community is pestering political instability which, of late, is witnessing new highs in the wake of Chief Minister Pervez Elahi’s advice to the Governor to dissolve Punjab Assembly. More is yet to come as the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa legislature will also be dismissed this weekend, paving the way for a contested floor in the political realms. This is why bourses at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) slumped with the KSE-100 index losing 366.73 points to fall to 40,437.16 points in the early half of Friday. The jittery situation is alarming as despite a promissory pledge of $4 billion from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the market is not responding favourably. This entails a formal dissection of thoughts to ascertain what ails the economy, and how sooner political stability can be ushered in to save the mosaic from plummeting to new lows.

PTI chief Imran Khan is on a hat-trick after swinging in two surprises in a day on Thursday — vote of confidence for Punjab chief minister and subsequent dissolution of the assembly. The third assured wicket in a day to come is of the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, and pundits of gloom say there is more to misery in the form of verifying resignations at the National Assembly, and compelling the Prime Minister to seek a vote of trust from his wafer-thin majority coalition. With many in the ruling dispensation airing grievances in public, it must at least be giving sleepless nights to the coalition members.

The lifeline for Pakistan from its traditional Arab allies, nonetheless, has come as divine intervention, and it is in need of being eulogised. It illustrates the deep-rooted concern that the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s magnanimous leadership has for Pakistan. At a time when the reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan were floored at less than $4 billion, not enough to stay afloat even for a couple of weeks, the $2 billion rollover of loans from the UAE, as well as a cash tranche of $1 billion, apart from the $1 billion Saudi fund for oil imports on deferred payment is generosity at its best.

Unfortunately that has not come to bail out the economy that has been on a ventilator of borrowed money. The first and foremost thing that Pakistan needs is political stability, and a government that can dig its heels deep to erect an edifice of socio-economic change. That does not seem to be a cup of tea of the present lingering dispensation that is mired in confusion, chaos and crisis. The system in vogue cannot withstand any misadventure. While the ruling coalition seems adamant that it will stay put with the status quo, it’s surely not going to be an easy undertaking.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 14^th, 2023.

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