Punjab’s quicksands just belched

PTI has thrown away the most unfair advantage it had against its rivals — two provincial governments

This week, we bring to you the live coverage of the most spectacular act of self-immolation or Jauhar performed in Punjab’s recent political history. I have been warning against this day since the start of the PTI’s government in Punjab. The day when the dog catches the car. For the proof of the pudding, see my self-explanatory piece ‘The quicksands of Punjab’ dated August 30, 2018. Chaudhary Pervaiz Elahi, the PTI’s compromise Chief Minister for Punjab after a long and troubled stint of Usman Buzdar, has sent the advice for the dissolution of the Punjab assembly to the province’s governor. If all things remain equal, the assembly is as good as gone. Bear in mind the credit for what happens next goes only to the PTI.

Before we move ahead with our thesis, let us first examine the PTI’s internal reasoning for the decision. The party is convinced that it has become the most popular force in the country, as proven by the 10 out of 20 seat win in the Punjab bypolls and 6 out of 8 seat victory in the federal byelections. With this popularity, it maintains it can carry Election Day. And it needs to build on this popularity through an early election. But since the system is adamant about not preponing the elections, by forcing the provincial assembly polls in two federating units (one of which happens to be the most populous, prosperous one and the ruling PML-N’s key source of power), it believes it can effect a change in the federal government and the system’s position. If A leads to B and C joins it to result in D, the game is all but won.

Now flaws in the plan. As you have guessed it already, there are too many variables, too many moving parts. To get the PTI’s desired results, all of these variables must come together and stay still for an extended period. This flies in the face of the law of parsimony or Occam’s razor. None of the variables involved stop changing. Otherwise, given the state of affairs before the Vote of No Confidence in April last year, the PTI would have remained the most unpopular party in the country.

The second flaw in the plan is that the party has thrown away the most unfair advantage it had against its rivals — two provincial governments. The PDM may not want to admit it, but Pervaiz Elahi knows all developmental pressure points worth an investment. By forcing him out and replacing him with a caretaker, the party surrenders a critical trump card in the province that houses half the country’s population.

Third, it extrapolates yesterday’s ground realities to chalk out a strategy for the day after tomorrow. When the party won the bypolls, the country was economically distressed and uncertain. Many months later, the nation is still in the throes of economic anxiety. Still, news reports from Geneva, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Beijing, and many other parts indicate that things are on the mend and may improve rapidly and exponentially. Likewise, many narratives were working to the PTI’s advantage. The foreign conspiracy narrative. The Imran-versus-Bajwa narrative. The old corruption argument. But all three narratives are dead and buried now. Even the case for respecting public mandate rings hollow when your leader openly admits that he was helped by the establishment and then throws it all away on whims.

Fourth flaw. It overlooks finer details. In all bypolls, it wasn’t a one-sided contest. We did not witness the PDM candidates losing their security deposits. And while for an argument’s sake, it can be said that 13 parties were contesting under one banner, the ground realities were much different. There is little evidence that the party establishments on whose tickets candidates were contesting ever came to their rescue. Even then, the margin of victory was not massive or insurmountable. As variables change, these votes can easily shift back to the other side.

Finally, the whopper. The presumption that this would lead to early elections at the federal level. Now there is a good chance that, left to its own devices, the PML-N could be pressured into dissolving the national assembly. But not in the current dispensation where several small parties are also part of the ruling coalition, not to mention the second biggest partner, the PPP, which will never dissolve the Sindh assembly prematurely.

As things stand now, the PTI seems to give up the two most effective levers of influence right when the federal government is in the middle of its victory lap after the success at Geneva and some hope for the flood-affected areas. Please do not underestimate the levers that are abandoned. Recently, when the federal government announced restricted business hours for markets, the twin PTI governments refused to play ball. Now with these governments gone, the caretakers will easily fall in line. And if the federal government can quickly build on its recent gains and stabilises the ship, it all goes to its credit.

When Imran came out of power, he had everything going for him. With the PDM reluctant about the austerity measures, it was inevitable that the economy would decline sharply before getting better. The economic deterioration was the most effective battering ram. But the former premier spent most of his time in one wild goose chase after another. Resignation from the national assembly. Long march. The appointment of the army chief. His narrative needed constant revision. His targets kept shifting too. But he let the moment slip when the economy was most vulnerable. Now with the dissolution of the two assemblies, the only lever he has left is street agitation. And we have seen the law of diminishing returns even there. If there is any hidden depth to annoying everybody and leaving your fate in your victims’ hands, I am not privy to it. To me, it is a sure recipe to snatch defeat out of the jaws of a possible victory.

In the end, I am compelled to radically revise my assessment of four men, namely Asif Ali Zardari, Shehbaz Sharif, Imran Khan, and Gen (retired) Qamar Bajwa. AAZ has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that he alone knows how to game the system effectively. When push came to shove, by steering the country out of the brewing crisis around the appointment of the next army chief and now trying to right the ship of the economy, the prime minister proved that he has the temperament needed for the high office. As for Gen Bajwa, I think Mr Khan has just confirmed that the former army chief was his well-wisher and a good friend. Only true friends try to protect you from your worst impulses and instincts. As for Mr Khan I can say only one thing. He needs no enemy.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 14^th, 2023.

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