Correcting course to overcome multiple crises

General Zia was eagerly looking for recognition of his govt by major powers and needed economic assistance desperately

Pakistan’s relations with foreign countries have been primarily dominated by military’s thinking that have looked at countries through the security angle. In case of Afghanistan, it was even more so, being a close neighbour with whom it enjoys common ties bound by geography, religion, language and culture. Involvement with Afghanistan increased manifold when the erstwhile Soviet Union in late December 1979 invaded the country in support of the Afghan communist government and remained in Afghanistan until February 1989.

General Zia was eagerly looking for recognition of his government by major powers and needed economic assistance desperately. For this he was prepared to embrace and be a part of the US strategy of bleeding the Soviet Union by getting fully embroiled in Afghanistan’s civil war. The strategy did work favourably for him at the personal level as the American and Western aid started pouring in whereby he strengthened his grip and suppressed all political opposition. But the country suffered enormously the scars of which remain to date.

However, the subsequent policy of Pakistan military supporting the Afghan Taliban alienated democratic governments of Afghanistan that were led first by President Hamid Karzai and then by President Ashraf Ghani from 2004 to 2021. More significantly, it strengthened the Taliban uprising and they returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, twenty years after their ouster by the US troops. And they have currently imposed an extremely harsh regime, imposed ban on girls’ education that is an affront to international norms and turned inwards isolating itself. It is also very doubtful if the Taliban government enjoys the support of the vast majority of Afghans. If that is the case then why do they have to impose such a harsh power structure to control the lives of common people? And why are they shy of having elections?

Pakistan’s initial response to Taliban assuming power was positive, because the Indian factor has weighed heavily in our relationship with Afghanistan. The expectation was that the Taliban leadership will not lean on India as the case was with the previous governments under Presidents Karzai and Ghani. More importantly, they would be sensitive to Pakistan’s interests and pursue policies that are mutually beneficial. This however has not been the case especially in respect of their support of TTP that has taken a highly adversarial position against Pakistan and is aggressively trying to establish its writ in parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan bordering Afghanistan. The Taliban government’s assurances that they would not allow TTP or other militant groups to engage in hostile activities against Pakistan lack credibility. Apparently, the bohemia that exists between the Taliban and TTP for being comrade in arms during their struggle against American occupation supersedes their sensitivity towards compliance of their adherence to international norms.

The strict code and interpretation of Islam by the Taliban government is having an adverse impact especially in border areas of K-P and Balochistan. There have been demands of Sharia-based governance. Moreover, since the Taliban takeover, there has been a significant rise in smuggling and drug trafficking, and formal trade with Pakistan has suffered.

As one delves deeper into the country’s past, with wisdom in hindsight, it seems we continue to repeat the same mistakes. Major national policies generally are formulated without a deeper involvement with parliamentarians. Seeking ideas from think-tanks is not even considered. It would not be an exaggeration that even the cabinet is seldom seriously consulted. These omissions are not only a breach of democratic governance but critically undermining national interest. The latest rift between the outgoing finance minister and the present one on policy and implementation issues belonging to the same political party is an example of such contradictions. It is not surprising that we are left with a paltry sum of four billion dollars of national reserve, and on the verge of default.

Furthermore, as of January 2023, public debt of Pakistan is around Rs62.46 trillion (USD 274 billion) which is close to 79 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). These figures should shake the collective conscience of the country, whereas it hasn’t as yet.

So where lies the answer? With greed and narrow personal interests of people in power overriding national compulsions, overcoming these multiple crises will not be easy. But inaction will make matters worse with solutions getting more complex and demanding. Suggestions of a technocratic government and similar dispensations are being floated. These have not worked in the past and will meet the same fate in future. In fact, if we seriously introspect, the weakness does not lie with the system but with those who deliberately distort it — be it the politicians or the establishment — for serving their perceived interest. So, the real challenge for the country’s leaders is to accept this reality and correct course.

The politician should draw strength from the support of the people and not leverage it by using the establishment. Similarly, the military leadership should stay away from delving in politics and remain within the bounds of the Constitution. The distorted political dispensation cannot remain frozen in its present form forever. It is not delivering and is not in tune with the wishes of its people.

The focus of our leaders should be on economic growth which has remained grossly neglected. It has adversely affected the lot of the broad masses and made Pakistan dependent on foreign assistance. We have to come out of this viscous cycle. Pakistanis are impatient for change and there is general disillusionment with political and business elites. Moreover, it is only when the economy will improve there will be development of a relatively sizeable middle class as it happened in China or we are now seeing in India. We are far away from that goal but it is time a beginning is made in right earnest.

This should be the new year’s patriotic urge and fervour. If we are serious and sincere, it would not be long before things will start changing for the better.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 11^th, 2023.

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