Europe will more rapidly reduce its reliance on natural gas as a result of the war in Ukraine, replacing Russian energy and boosting the continent’s security of supply, Norway-based consultancy DNV predicted on Wednesday.
“The Ukraine war has strongly impacted our forecast for natural gas consumption in Europe,” DNV said in its sixth annual Energy Transition Outlook report.
The consultancy now predicts annual European gas consumption of 170 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2050 versus 310 bcm per year predicted one year ago, and down from around 580 bcm in 2020.
European gas consumption in 2030 is now expected to be almost 26% lower than in DNV’s pre-invasion forecast made one year ago, accelerating the continent’s energy transition.
“Energy security is forcing Europe to double down on increasing the efficiency in the system and increasing the production of renewables,” Sverre Alvik, the Director of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, told Reuters.
On a global scale, the war in Ukraine had little impact on the overall speed of the energy transition away from fossil fuels, however.
“Europe has the finances to buy the expensive gas, but Bangladesh and Pakistan do not and are going back to coal instead,” Alvik said.
In fact, discussions at the United Nations Climate Conference (COP 27) in November will likely focus on financing the transition, both due to high energy prices and extreme weather events seen this year, he added.
“The high-income countries need to both help to develop the technologies so they mature, and to finance the infrastructure build out in low-income countries,” Alvik said.
The Kremlin calls its actions in Ukraine “a special military operation”.
Meanwhile, Russian oil exports dropped by nearly 4% in September as sales to Europe fell sharply ahead of EU sanctions that kick in at the end of the year, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
Russian oil exports fell by 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September to 7.5 million bpd, the energy watchdog said in its monthly report. Crude exports were down 260,000 bpd to 4.8 million bpd from a recent peak of 5.5 million bpd in April. Exports of products such as diesel and gasoline rose by 30,000 bpd.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 14th, 2022.
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