Spike in terrorism

At least 42 terrorist attacks of varying magnitude recorded in September

The TTP’s unilateral breach of its ceasefire with the government, coupled with an upsurge in violence in other parts of the country, led to September becoming the worst month this year in terms of terrorist attacks. At least 42 terrorist attacks of varying magnitude were recorded last month, according to data collected by Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, an independent think tank. That represents a double-digit increase in the terrorism cases in comparison with the previous month, despite a significant decline in violence in Balochistan, where separatists are responsible for almost all of the terrorist activities. Deaths in terrorist incidents were also up slightly — rising from 37 in August to 42 in September — and injuries also rose.

Meanwhile, attacks in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the ex-Fata areas more than doubled. However, even in Balochistan, some analysts believe it was the floods, rather than improved security or weakness among terrorist groups that led to a decline in terrorist attacks. The statistics also showed that 17 militants were killed and 18 held by security forces. The report also suggested that a significant number of TTP leaders based in Afghanistan were eliminated in a “series of target killing incidents” after the group’s leaders went underground. Although no numbers were provided, a timeline may illustrate if the TTP attacks were the cause, or the response, of these ‘eliminations’, or even if it was coincidental. It is also worth noting that the TTP only claimed eight of the attacks recorded in K-P, including the ex-Fata areas, meaning that attacks of other origins also rose.

Among the victims of terrorism, 24 of the 42 people martyred in attacks were security officials — 57% — which the report’s authors say is a clear indication that security forces were the terrorists’ main target. However, only 19 of the 77 victims that survived with injuries were security officials, meaning that over 75% of these victims were civilians — something that leads us to conclude that ‘soft’ targets remain at significant risk.

Even though the statistical sample is small, the intensity of attacks in the ex-Fata areas also appeared marginally lower than in the rest of the country. Although all of the security forces personnel martyred in September fell in attacks in K-P, the fatalities per incident and the number of injuries were below the national average. And even though attacks in Balochistan were down, it is notable that only two of the seven attacks in the province were claimed. Given the proclivity of Baloch separatist groups to quickly claim attacks — even when incidents turned out to not be attacks but rather cylinder explosions or car accidents — it is a matter of serious concern whether or not these unclaimed attacks were by new groups.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 7^th, 2022.

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