Zawahiri’s killing alters Kabul chessboard

Pakistan apprehends hard times ahead for Afghan Taliban

ISLAMABAD:

When the Afghan Taliban returned to power in Kabul in August last year, Pakistan was one of the leading countries urging the US to unfreeze roughly $7 billion foreign assets of the conflict-hit neighbouring country’s central bank withheld in different American banks.

Soon others including China, Russia, Iran, Qatar and even the UN representatives joined the campaign and agreed that the interim Afghan government should have access to those frozen funds given the precarious humanitarian and economic situation in their country.

The administration of US President Joe Biden, however, remained adamant that the funds would not be released often citing lawsuits in the US filed by the victims of the 9/11 attacks.

Nevertheless, the calls for unfreezing the Afghan assets started becoming so louder that the US administration began negotiations with the Afghan Taliban.

In July, the US special envoy for Afghanistan held talks with the interim Afghan foreign minister in Doha to find a way out.

Negotiations were termed productive and there were some signs that the US might release a part of the funds to help support the Afghan economy.

However, then came the killing of al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a CIA drone strike in Kabul.

Zawahri was living in an upscale neighbourhood of the Afghan capital not far from the presidential palace.

This raised immediate questions about the commitments the Taliban had made with the international community, particularly with the US to sever ties with al-Qaeda.

The Afghan Taliban took four days to come up with an official response denying both the presence of Zawahri on the Afghan soil as well as expressing ignorance if the man killed in the hellfire missile was indeed the al-Qaeda chief.

The damage, however, had been done, according to Pakistani sources.

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They admitted that the killing of Zawahri in the neighbouring country was a serious setback to the Afghan Taliban’s efforts to seek legitimacy.

The sources foresaw difficult times ahead for the interim Afghan government as the US administration was unlikely to release the frozen funds.

“This is a worrying development for Pakistan too,” said one official who dealt with the subject.

The official, while speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Express Tribune that the lack of access to billions of dollars frozen assets by the Afghan government would add to the war-torn country’s economic woes.

Besides, the official added that this meant Afghans would rely heavily on Pakistan.

The official further said Pakistan’s economy was already reeling from one crisis to another and further economic disaster in the neighbouring country would not bode well for Islamabad.

There were reports that one of the reasons Pakistan’s currency saw a dip in recent weeks was that there was a smuggling of dollars to Afghanistan.

It was because of this reason Pakistan had been pushing for the release of funds for the Afghan government, the official explained.

“This would not have helped review the Afghan economy but would have eased pressure on our exchange rate,” the official added.

A diplomatic source refused to predict the long-term implications of the Zawahri’s killing.

The diplomatic source was of the view that the US was continuing with humanitarian and other assistance.

However, observers believed that mere humanitarian assistance would not be enough as the Afghan government desperately needs foreign reserves to pull the country out of its current quagmire.

It was not just Zawahiri’s killing but the reluctance of the Afghan Taliban to permit girls’ education also emerged as another stumbling block that prevented the US and West to provide financial assistance.

A Pakistani official said there were differences even within the Taliban ranks. The group that currently is part of the government understands the importance of financial assistance and hence is willing to accommodate the West’s concerns. However, the top leadership sitting in Kandahar is not willing to mend their ways just because of the international community’s expectations, the official added.

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Pakistan fears that without meeting the international community’s demands, there will not be any recognition of the Afghan Taliban’s rule.

“This scenario will only make matters worse. No recognition means no financial assistance. Afghanistan will remain volatile. This is certainly the last thing we want,” the official cautioned.

Another signal pointing to hard times ahead for the Afghan Taliban was failure of the UN Security Council to extend the travel exemption to the group's leaders.

The UN waiver allowing 13 Afghan Taliban officials to travel abroad expired on Friday, as China and Russia called for an extension.

However, the US and Western nations have sought a reduced list of Taliban officials allowed to travel to protest against their backtracking on commitment for girls’ education and failure to form an inclusive government as it had promised.

Under a 2011 UN Security Council resolution, 135 Taliban officials were subjected to sanctions that included asset freezes and travel bans. However, 13 of them were granted exemptions from the travel ban to allow them to meet officials from other countries abroad for peace talks.