Former prime minister and PTI Chairman Imran Khan faces a popularity test tomorrow (Sunday) in by-elections on 20 Punjab Assembly seats, which will decide the fate of provincial government led by Chief Minister Hamza Shehbaz.
Sunday's vote in Punjab is seen as a possible bellwether for national elections that must be held by October next year, although ex-PM Imran has campaigned across the country for an earlier poll since being dismissed by a no-confidence vote in April.
Twenty Punjab Assembly seats fell vacant after the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) disqualified Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) dissident lawmakers at his request when they switched loyalties.
The machinations led to a change of government in the province, which is now headed by Hamza, son of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Analysts say the election gives the PTI chairman the chance to gauge how well his campaign to raise popular support is going.
"If he wins, he will say 'people are with me' and increase pressure for fresh elections," political commentator Hasan Askari told AFP.
Also read: By-poll preparations in Punjab enter final phase
If he loses, "Khan will definitely call it a rigged election", he added.
The former premier has drawn thousands to rallies across the country since being deposed, giving lengthy speeches claiming the coalition government was imposed on the country by a US-led conspiracy.
He also blames the current government for soaring inflation, although most analysts agree PM Shehbaz inherited the country's economic woes — which were given some relief this week by an agreement with the International Monetary Fund to resume a rescue package.
PML-N needs to win at least half the 20 seats up for grabs in Punjab or else they will likely cede control of the provincial assembly to the PTI and its allies.
"Stakes are high on both sides," Askari said.
"The future political direction will remain uncertain in Pakistan even in the post-election period.”
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