Dollar gains after US payrolls beat forecast

Data showed non-farm jobs increased 372,000 in June

NEW YORK:

The US dollar rose on Friday after data showed the world’s largest economy created more jobs than expected in June, cementing expectations of another 75-basis-point (bps) hike at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month.

Earlier in the session, the greenback hit a fresh two-decade high against a basket of currencies, led by gains against the euro amid signs the euro zone economy will tip into recession. The dollar has hit consecutive 20-year peaks this week, gaining in five of the last six weeks.

The dollar index was last up 0.3% at 107.30.

Friday’s data showed that US non-farm payrolls increased by 372,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 268,000 jobs added last month.

Fed funds futures priced in a more than 90% chance of a 75 bps rate hike this month, with about 187 bps of cumulative tightening by the end of the year. That was up from 181 bps late Thursday.

“Certainly it solidifies the view that there’s going to be a 75-basis-point increase in the next two weeks when they meet, but beyond that, it probably doesn’t have much implications because we’re going to have more data points before that,” said Tom Plumb, Portfolio Manager at Plumb Balanced Fund in Milwaukee.

“We are still in the case where bad news is good news and good news is bad news. So that’s going to be the case until there’s some perception and sentiment that the Federal Reserve Bank has accomplished or is accomplishing their goal of moderating the growth of the economy and breaking the back of the inflation cycle that started last year.”

Focus was also on the euro, which was down around 3% against the dollar this week as investors worry about the economic impact of an energy crisis brought on by the uncertainty of gas supply from Russia. The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.0141. Against the yen, the dollar gained 0.2% to 136.32 yen.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 9^th, 2022.

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