Trust vote against Johnson

British PM Boris Johnson barely survived an internal Conservative party confidence vote, with only 59% of the party’s parliament members supporting him. Johnson may have called the result ‘decisive’ and ‘very good’, but one look at the math shows it was anything but that. Johnson had the support of 211 of the Conservatives’ 359 MPs, which equates to only 32% of the overall House of Commons. Given the 326 vote requirement in the lower house, if the 291 members of the combined opposition vote as a block, only 34 of the 148 Conservatives that opposed Johnson’s continued leadership would need to join them in a Commons vote to send Johnson packing.

Under UK law, such a vote would not necessarily put Conservative control of the lower house at risk, as the party still holds a simple parliamentary majority. And while MPs who break with their party whips may be punished by being denied ‘promotions’ or tickets in future elections, unlike in Pakistan, there are no explicit bars on voting against one’s own party, and anything considered a ‘vote of conscience’ is usually protected from whip pressure.

Also, given Johnson’s lack of broad internal support, his resignation or forced exit is actually looking more likely after the vote. Opposition leaders have strengthened their calls for his resignation, while dissenters in his own party doubt he will survive past the summer. This is eerily similar to what happened to ex-PM Imran Khan in Pakistan. Dissent within his party was brushed aside, until it grew beyond control. Unlike Pakistan, no foreign powers are being blamed. Even Johnson’s backers admit that, aside from the ‘Partygate’, Johnson’s leadership and some poor policy decisions are to blame.

But Johnson still has time. Perhaps he will blame a conspiracy led by foreign billionaires as some democratically ousted populists have recently done, or maybe he will take a cue from our own confidence-deprived PM and blame Chief of Defence Staff Tony Radakin and a joint secretary in the Pakistani Foreign Ministry. After all, PM Shehbaz Sharif did not even bother to meet Johnson on his recent trip to London.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 8^th, 2022.

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