War in Ukraine — roles and implications

The Russian invasion has resulted in the greatest humanitarian and refugee crises in Europe since World War-I

On May 21, US President Joe Biden signed into law the ‘Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022’, providing $40 billion in mainly military aid, including modern weapons, besides some economic and humanitarian support. He rallied the leaders of QUAD (US, Australia, Japan and India) during the recent summit in Tokyo against Russia. Sending full complement of the US Embassy to Kyiv is under process.

Militarily, there is even talk of sending US boots on ground in Ukraine by an emboldened US Department of Defense. As of this May, 40 nations have sent military aid to Ukraine under the four main categories: basic guns and munitions; missiles; attack drones; and artillery.

The US, having already supplied over 7,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles, is mulling additional transfers even depleting US Army stockpiles. NATO/US has supplied thousands of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which are contesting the Russian Air Force’s control of the skies.

Slovakia and Slovenia are considering transfer of Soviet-made S-300 air defense system to fight Russian drones, used to direct bombs/missiles towards distant targets.

Ukraine is already using 121 recently-developed US’s Phoenix Ghost tactical drones besides the US Switchblade and Turkish Bayraktar attack drones. These inflicted great losses on Russian armour and artillery, besides distracting Russian missile defenses as decoys. The US is mulling over sending advanced drones, the faster – MQ-9 Reaper – controlled from afar, unlike the smaller ones, requiring controller to be within the battlespace.

The UK, one of the largest arms suppliers to Kyiv, has delivered over 5,000 Nlaws/other anti-tank missiles, five air-defence systems and other munitions. It is considering transfer of anti-ship missiles to prevent Russian blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

Finally, to defeat and deter Russian long-range artillery, US/NATO have started equipping Ukrainian artillery with large-caliber guns. According to Pentagon, the US has sent more than half of its howitzers to Ukraine. The White House has committed to supply Mi-17 helicopters. Germany, after weeks of deliberations, has promised to send Gepard anti-aircraft tanks. After re-election, French President Emmanuel Macron has approved Caesar cannons and Milan anti-tank missiles for Ukraine. The Czech Republic has sent T-72 tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and artillery systems. Poland has sent drones, Javelin missiles and pledged T-72 tanks. Norway has shipped Mistral anti-air missiles and other anti-tank weapons.

The above is a snapshot of the overt Western/US involvement in Ukraine war. This is in addition to the clandestine help and robust intelligence and communications support, admittedly provided by America. Billions of dollars are appropriated by the US/NATO for buying war materiel by involved nations to help Ukraine. As militaries all over the world know, the myriad equipment provided in war needs training and/or staffing or both, to absorb the incoming technology optimally and use it effectively. Therefore, presence of Western veterans, volunteers, mercenaries and even troops in disguise to fight Russians is evident and widely reported.

How far the International Law permits such overt and covert interference today depends upon who interprets the law. With the ability to ‘manufacture reality’ and keep ‘re-manufacturing it’ to suit ends sought, through a powerful print and electronic media blitz, the West portrays this war in vastly different light than it ever did in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan for example. This war by proxy is to defang the Russian military for good, dominate its political landscape and chip away at its sphere of influence… Eastern Europe first.

However, like all conflicts, this war has also the potential of spilling over into Europe and into the nuclear domain, by default if not by design. Escalation has its own dynamics, and climbing down the ‘escalation ladder’ is much harder than climbing up, since there is huge political cost involved. Besides military repercussions, this conflict has and will permeate international trade, commerce and economy in unfathomable ways.

Ukrainian ports are under Russian naval blockade, hampering supply of grains to the rest of the world. Russia and Ukraine together supply a third of world’s grains. Soaring food prices across the world is its first bitter consequence. Africa in particular is hit hard. Food scarcity is/would be the new emergency. The war, exacerbating the corona-induced disruptions to global logistics and supply chains, has contributed to inordinate delays across the global maritime transportation system. The sea-borne transportation costs, already high due to coronavirus-imposed restrictions, are more inflated due to war-related insurance costs and non-availability of Russo-Ukrainian maritime assets and infrastructure.

Consumer prices at the gas stations are the highest. Governments, like Pakistan, providing subsidies to shield people against inflation, are in a quandary. The specter of Russian energy out of European/US system is haunting, inflationary and costly, with no alternatives till Qatar is able to bridge the supply shortfall (gas only); and that is not likely before 2027.

The global effort spanning decades to move away from fossil fuels to cleaner and greener energy is set back by years. Environmental footprint of both armies fighting, destroying infrastructure, causing emissions and damaging flora and fauna is huge.

International Relations, from the happy days of WTO, Global Village and the Treaty of Maastricht, are again animating towards the tense decades of Cold War and bloc politics.

Regional politics is forcibly re-oriented under the intonation of ‘with or against us’. Pakistan seems to be the first casualty of its Russian ‘mis’adventure.

At the societal levels, Russian invasion has resulted in the greatest humanitarian and refugee crises in Europe since World War-II. Physical destruction of infrastructure, weakening of economic and political institutions, loss of countless lives, injuries to innumerable people, loss of millions of livelihoods through displacement, lost homes/businesses and lost incomes will be felt through generations. The trauma effect of the conflict, played daily at homes across the world through TV screens, is enormous on children and adults alike. Beside reduction in human and material capital, the world is beset by deepening societal divisions, thanks to proliferation of social media.

‘Ukraine must win’ as the EU Commissioner thundered from the safety of World Economic Forum on 24th May, 2022. Though moralistically appealing for Western drawing rooms, the heat is where the fires are. This experiment of prevailing over Russia using proxies might have unintended consequences, just like the ‘noble undertaking’ of bloodying the nose of Soviet Union in Afghanistan before our own eyes… Afghanistan is yet to settle.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 26^th, 2022.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.