Well played skipper!

Like the perennial twin deficits (fiscal and current account) that have interminably plagued our economy, the challenge has now become much more insurmountable. Transmuting into an economic meltdown and a serious political crisis, hence a potently perilous position to be in. The juggernaut of economy cannot be driven with the subsidised fuel and power. This has to be withdrawn forthwith if IMF is to keep its loan programme intact or else the life support system will be abruptly removed. We really face an existential threat of an ominous nature. God forbid, Pakistan is likely to be heading on the Sri Lankan path of default and civil strife that is sure to go beyond the capacity of the tremulous government to deal with any civility. Once you have loosened the navigational control then the outcome is always calamitous.

Let us first identify the root causes of our current situation and see if this could have been averted or the catastrophic looming danger portending a bloody civil unrest is due as a fait accompli. Let me state categorically that I am not a supporter of any political party nor am I at daggers drawn with any institution of the country. We have the best professional army but the politicians are hell bent on not letting them extricate themselves from their political role. Unfortunately, the army also chose a critically unfavourable time to become neutral and apolitical. The superior judiciary too flinched from playing a diffusive role which was essentially imperative in the inflamed circumstances. The Election Commission also exuded a kind of misplaced and overbearing independence in dealing with the electoral woes of PTI. The other saner elements, far and few between, in bureaucracy and politics were unable to play a mollifying role in allowing Imran Khan to complete his tenure as the system they work in is rotten and amoral. Their voices are like an echo of a tweet in a drum house (naqqar khanay mai tooti ki sada). Until the state structure is not straightened no remedy will work.

Pakistan existed in disarray for more than 70 years going from bad to worse. The Establishment let the no-confidence motion against Khan succeed at the most inopportune phase of the country. The Opposition did not realise they were not dislodging Khan but were uprooting their own politics. Probably no one ever dreamt of Khan’s phenomenal rise in popularity once he was ousted. The narrative Khan built of a conspiracy against his ouster managed by the US with the outrageous help of the political turncoats and other elements made him a popular leader overnight from a very vulnerable and weak position due to ever-rising inflation and unstoppable depreciation of our currency.

The people gelled around Khan instantaneously as the majority of them in the country and almost entire overseas Pakistanis are not willing to accept the tainted politicians making to the power corridors yet again. They believe that PML-N and PPP, whose corruption cases were heading towards a logical conclusion, were given an NRO-2.

Now the Establishment has been left with the Hobson’s choice. Announce fresh elections as soon as possible. Ensure that expats get the right to vote from their respective countries of residence even if I-voting in Pakistan is not possible at this juncture. The interim government setup for the elections should consist of the best technocrats for taking care of the moribund economy and the anticipated hyper-inflation. The non-essential import items must be sternly banned in the country. The floating rate of foreign exchange can be significantly minimised if the foreign currency network of the dealers, capable of changing the rupee-dollar parity swings and sentiments due to arbitrage profits is done away with and the lifeline function is dedicated to the scheduled banks throughout the country. The PM, during the interim setup, should be one of the best economists available in the country. And then leave the rest to Allah as Ghalib has said: Raat din gardish mai hain saat aasman; Ho rahay ga kuchh na kuchh ghabrain kya.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 21^st, 2022.

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