Unabating Sri Lanka crisis

Sri Lanka continues to spiral out of control due to an unprecedented economic crisis and the desperate efforts of the leaders responsible to cling on to power. Brutal efforts by the country’s security forces to shut down violent protests against the regime — triggered by regime goons attacking peaceful protesters — left eight people dead and over 200 injured on Tuesday. The violence has led even the major industrial leaders who once backed the ruling party to call for a new government to take charge and restore order. Although Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has resigned in response, that will hardly quell the protests; as his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa is still the President and has effectively suspended habeas corpus by allowing security forces to detain and question people, and search private property and vehicles without seeking warrants. The army has also been ordered to shoot “lawbreakers” on sight. Coming on the heels of a curfew order and the imposition of a state of emergency, the new rules are tailor-made for abuse. We would not be surprised to see peaceful regime opponents being indefinitely detained without charge.

Sri Lanka’s problems are very real, and while not entirely the Rajapaksas’ fault, the ruling family has compounded them by refusing to read the writing on the wall and do what is best for the country, rather than the continuation of their own regime. Of note, there are several parallels to Pakistan, including populist decisions that severely impacted government revenue, and failure to manage foreign reserves, which has created shortages of essential items and caused rampant inflation. But in the admittedly short time since Pakistan was rid of the team that took us to the brink of economic disaster, the replacements have not been able to inspire much confidence: the economy is still spiralling, and there is now the increasing risk of ex-PM Imran Khan shutting down the country. We do not know if protests will help him achieve his dream of retaking power, but we are certain that if they run for several days or weeks, they will likely seal the fate of the economy.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, May 12^th, 2022.

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