PSX bleeds over 1,000 points amid political, economic uncertainty

Experts say Pakistan's balance of payment crisis behind decline

KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) declined by over 1,000 points on Monday as investors resumed the selling spree owing to economic uncertainty and political turmoil in the country.

The PSX benchmark KSE-100 Index was down by over 2 per cent to 43,903 points by mid-day.

"Stocks faced selling pressure amid a one-week delay in talks between Pakistan and IMF for resumption of the loan programme," Arif Habib Limited (AHL) Head of Research Tahir Abbas said while talking to The Express Tribune.

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The country has not succeeded in acquiring any fresh bailout packages from friendly countries, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's recent visit.

The selling pressure was seen across the board and foreign investors were also speculating regarding selling their stocks as Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have depleted and are hovering around $10.5 billion – the lowest in two years. With this, the country's import cover has dropped to a 1.5-month level from usually around 3-months.

Experts said Pakistan’s balance of payment crisis pushed investors to sell part of their holdings at the PSX.

Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may begin talks on May 18 in Doha, as the country’s options to avoid insolvency have been limited after it could not immediately receive any major financial support from its three friendly countries.

Subject to the government’s willingness to start withdrawing fuel subsidies from May 15, the two sides have tentatively planned to meet in Qatar for policy level discussions to revive the programme and extend its tenure and size to $8 billion, a senior government functionary told The Express Tribune.

The IMF has informed the government that it could send a mission to Doha for one week on May 18 for talks with Pakistan on the revival of the Extended Fund Facility, said the officials. However, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will have to overcome all obstacles from his cabinet members before that and has to make a decision on fuel subsidies.

The development comes amid a delay in finalisation of new loan deals with Saudi Arabia, China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Late last year, the country had secured $1.2 billion annual oil facility ($100 million per month) on deferred payment at an interest rate of 3.8%.

Instead, the sources said, Saudi Arabia has offered to facilitate Pakistan in receiving oil facility from Islamic Development Bank’s commercial arm – International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) or from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Fund for International Development.

But the ITFC and OPEC Fund facilities would be different from what Pakistan was seeking. Pakistan is already availing an ITFC oil facility at 4.5% interest rate.

The government had also requested the Saudi Arabia to reduce interest rates on the existing cash and oil facilities, but this seemed difficult.

Last month, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail requested the IMF to extend the programme duration from September 2022 to June 2023 and also increase the loan size from $6 billion to $8 billion.

The country’s external finances situation remain precarious, as it is left with only $10.5 billion gross official foreign exchange reserves while its monthly import bill was $6.6 billion in April.

The $10.5 billion is inclusive of $4 billion of China, $3 billion of Saudi Arabia, and $2.5 billion of the UAE deposits.