Political tug of war

While former prime minister Imran Khan continues trying to prove that the public still has confidence in him through shows of street power, incumbent PM Shehbaz Sharif has hit the ground running with a spree of meetings with coalition partners as well as a few policy announcements. Both men have made it abundantly clear that early elections will be the focus for at least the next few months — Imran wants them, Shehbaz doesn’t. But just because Imran can still draw a crowd does not mean he will get his way.

Well before Imran’s ouster, the Election Commission of Pakistan had said it would take several months to complete delimitation, which is necessary for free and fair elections. Imran has been curiously silent on this aspect of an early election call — even though some coalition partners have openly said early elections are a possibility once election reforms are passed and the ECP is in a position to conduct them. Perhaps the reason is that a delay may hurt Imran. His base is currently energised, and some politically-neutral voters are still sold on his disproven conspiracy theories, but for how long?

Of course, considering the patchwork nature of the ruling coalition, the odds are still in Imran’s favour. Shehbaz has the uphill task of holding together a massive patchwork coalition and a thin majority. Assuming the PTI walk back their promise to resign, even one or two smaller coalition parties breaking away is enough to bring down the government. Even without the PTI in parliament, a slew of by-elections could still create a precarious situation. Given his proven reputation as an administrator, this will be Shehbaz’s biggest challenge — holding the coalition together.

Still, Shehbaz has made it clear that he wants to govern rather than just using his office for electioneering. He has already called a meeting of “independent economic experts” to help right the policy wrongs of the past three years and is working to stabilise his government during his trip to Karachi through talks with the PPP and MQM-P. Quite a few announcements related to infrastructure, drinking water and transportation were made during the daylong trip — as a good starting point. If this expression of a sense of urgency could be translated into some tangible output, it would help Shehbaz live up to his reputation of a doer, and also go on to politically benefit the MQM-P

Also, there has been undisputable good news for the new government on one front — foreign relations. Every major ally, and even a few foes, congratulated Shehbaz on becoming prime minister. And while Imran may have a field day over the US and India sending felicitation and can explain away the glowing language from Saudi Arabia due to the Sharifs friendly personal ties with the royal family, the statements from China and Russia would certainly hurt him.

Beijing suggested that ties would improve under Shehbaz, despite Imran’s singing every praise possible for the Chinese, while Moscow essentially pushed him to the side after he insisted that the Russians were backing his claim of foreign interference. Surely an American “imported government” — as Imran and the PTI call it — would not be receiving warm greetings from Washington’s main rival. But if recent history teaches us anything, Imran may use this to claim that the entire world is now conspiring against him.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, April 18^th, 2022.

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