Deciphering the crisis

With PDM in disarray and PTI crumbling under its unrealistic promises, both finally resorted to unconstitutional moves

For many, after the unexpected strike on the motion of VONC, there is nothing shrouded in mystery about the crisis we have descended into but for some it is not as evident as it seems given the multiplicity of players and opacity around their interactions! One side, the PDM, attributes it to the recklessness and utter disregard of PM Khan for constitutionalism; the other side, led by PM Khan, cries hoarse to make it a strong case of blatant interference by the US in collusion with forces opposing the PTI government. One can propose a broad outline of how and why the crisis transpired as it did and where is it heading.

The beleaguered PM, it seems, was waiting for some miracle to rescue his dwindling politics thanks to his dismal economic performance coupled with poor governance vis-à-vis his tall claims. He failed to deliver on most of his promises not because of his lack of will or incompetence but due to the unrealistic nature of targets. How could he have turned the diabetic economy around that has deep-rooted structural causes? How would he have fixed governance in a short period of ninety days (corruption being an indicator of poor governance) given different mafia occupying or influencing key positions in various power structures?

Having failed to make tangible footprint on the economic front, the overzealous PM turned to religion and other populist consternations as a means of getting back in politics (if not rising to new found glory) in a country where people can hardly make distinction between fun and performance. Making fiery speeches against Islamophobia, advocating revival of the state of Madina, establishing lame duck religious institutions (such as Rahmat-ul-lilalameen authority), and flaunting shalwar-qamees in foreign trips kept his die-hard followers regurgitating his past achievements (92 World Cup, SKMH, and NAMAL university). But he knew all this could not withstand the pressure of grinding poverty.

The PDM, formed in opposition to what its leaders called the hybrid regime, was in a state of disarray since its inception because of internal ‘trust deficit’ and disagreement on how to bring about political change. The PML-N had its own calculations with a mixed of outburst and appeasement of the military establishment going on simultaneously. The PPP, with its government in Sindh, went its own way by getting surety from the establishment a larger share in the political pie of next elections. The JUI-F had its own axe to grind by blowing hot and cold when and where it found appropriate. But as a collective entity, the PDM was not making a visible dent in the power fortress.

With PDM in disarray and the PTI crumbling under its unrealistic promises, both finally resorted to unconstitutional moves to settle past scores and outsmart one another in the 2023 elections. It is in this context that the US comes into play. Besides its internal political dynamics, Pakistan has started feeling the heat of strategic re-balancing of power at global level. It has consistently tried to remain neutral but both China and the US are using different tools to outmanoeuvre each other in swaying its foreign policy. Besides years of betrayal by the US and the way it supports Indian hegemony in South Asia, Pakistan is left with no choice but to deepen its strategic relations with China and Russia. But this is not acceptable to the US which is reflected in its ‘letter of admonition’ sent to Pakistan.

Stuck in mutual acrimony of ‘incompetence versus corruption’ and the US policy of neither owning nor leaving Pakistan, the PDM and PTI have brought in external factors to bear on their power struggle. PTI keeps brandishing the letter as irrefutable evidence of attempted regime change by the US whereas the PDM insists IK has subverted the Constitution by not allowing VONC. This nasty struggle for attaining and retaining power has weakened the nascent democracy in Pakistan besides giving new meaning to the country’s position in the New World Order.

The current constitutional crisis, though now seemingly resolved by the Supreme Court through its landmark judgement on the legality of Deputy Speaker’s ruling, will keep haunting the country in different forms. Questions pertaining to sovereignty of Parliament, supremacy of the Constitution, and independence of Judiciary will be raised time and again in pursuit of harmonious relations among state institutions.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 9^th, 2022.

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