Pakistan is getting more allied with the eastern world, comprising countries such as China and Russia, and less allied with the western world made up of the US and Europe. This natural shift has happened due to greater common interests with the east, more respect and sincerity from the east, and common goals, complementarities and greater commercial prospects with the east. It is also a response to the alignment of the west with India driven by a motivation to contain China.
We may profess that we are not part of one bloc or another, but our actions, relationships and economic links indicate otherwise. We are increasingly looking eastwards. True, our export markets are at present largely in the west, but if our investment and commercial dynamics sustain the present direction, this may change in a few years.
Nobody can fault Pakistan for setting an independent and self-governed foreign policy. We are a sovereign country, and have the right to set our own direction. China has revitalised our economy through CPEC and the BRI, and we have been recently warming up to Russia, with whom there were strong prospects of energy, investment and trade. Our realignment and refocus made a lot of sense for building our own economy and securing our national interest.
But the direction of world events does not remain static, and sometimes things happen that must make us reassess our direction and make us change course. The brutal attack and invasion of Ukraine by Russia, killing thousands of civilians and destroying Ukrainian cities, is one such sharp turn in global developments.
Russia may have legitimate security concerns regarding the expansion of NATO, but international law and the concept of sovereignty of countries obligates it to address these concerns through negotiations. A country does not just invade and destroy another, simply because it wishes to, and has an army that is large enough to carry out such a wish. There are many other conflicts where large armies have done exactly that in smaller countries, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen. None of their actions are defensible, and neither are Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
NATO, the European Union and the world may be coordinating better than before, but their response both to Russia’s threat and its deed is embarrassingly and shockingly feeble. In the recent UN General Assembly’s non-binding resolution condemning the Russian action, 141 out of 183 countries (77%) voted in favour; 35 countries, including Pakistan and China, abstained; and 5 countries, namely Russia, Eritrea, North Korea, Syria and Belarus, voted against. This is a situation for the world to assess. The question facing Pakistan is whether its stance towards the Ukrainian war is the right thing to do, and whether it is in Pakistan’s interest.
The moral case is clear enough: Russia, militarily unprovoked by peaceful, independent and sovereign Ukraine, has repeatedly attacked it, most recently in an unimaginably barbaric and brutal manner. As the clear aggressor whose actions have led to a tremendous loss of lives and infrastructure, it must be condemned. And the victim of this aggression must be unconditionally supported and helped.
Even if we put the moral case aside for a moment, the logic of realpolitik also tells us that not condemning Russia’s actions and not wholeheartedly supporting Ukraine is an unwise thing for Pakistan to do. While the world may have expected China’s abstention, it looks to countries such as Pakistan and India to see how they stand on such a burning issue. As can be seen by the UNGA’s vote, Russia is increasingly isolated on the world stage. Whether the west’s weak actions can save Ukraine or not, it is clear that Russia’s economic isolation will continue until it is considerably economically weakened. Such a country is not a particularly good prospect to build economic ties with.
While Pakistan may be attracted by economic and energy benefits from Russia, these are prospects for the future. Ukraine is a country that has stood resolutely by us, helping us strengthen our defence capabilities. With Ukraine’s help, we first developed the Al-Khalid tank, and with its help as well, we upgraded it later. We owe it to our friends to be with them in their hour of need.
We were drawn closer to Russia in recent years because we viewed it as a country that had evolved from the USSR that it used to be; the USSR that had invaded Afghanistan as a stepping stone to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. Through his actions in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has shown that it is not the evolved Russia that he cherishes, but the USSR of yesteryears, which he wishes to recreate. At a later time, may he not wish to rewrite history in Afghanistan as well? Finally win that war, losing which earlier had so humbled the USSR, and triggered its demise? Is this a country we want to build relations with? We see how Russia deals with its own citizens, arresting those peacefully protesting, by the thousands, clamping down on TV and social media. Are these the influences that we want to spread in our country as we strengthen our ties?
If we must choose our own foreign policy, we must form relations with each country on its own merits. Right now, we are particularly close to a number of countries with a brutal streak, most recently, Russia, but earlier, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Must this be the trend of our foreign policy? If we really are not going to play bloc politics, then we must walk the talk. Right now, we appear to have become card-carrying members of the autocratic bloc.
With the multiple challenges facing us, such as Covid and failure to truly undertake economic reform and restructuring, and failure to form robust parts of Global Value Chains and to build our export engines, we cannot afford to get involved in global conflicts. But we must build our trade and investment prospects on solid foundations, and this means not having Russia as one of the pillars.
It is the present flavor of Russia we must be wary of. Russians are a great people, their valiant protests in the face of sure arrest is evidence of this. Tomorrow, led by someone other than Putin, they may serve as a brilliant economic partner. But we must wait for that time, and until then, put relations with them on hold.
Do we have the courage and self-confidence to think independently and build our unique foreign policy? Are we sincere enough to be loyal to our old friends, the Ukrainians, and go to their rescue in whatever way we can? Time will tell. Let us be adept and pivot, with the changing situation. Let us do the right thing, for our national interest, and to help our Ukrainian friends. Let us change our stance on the Ukraine war.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2022.
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