A tragedy of overconfident miscalculations

Despite assurances of military and financial aid by its allies, it is obvious that Ukraine is on its own right now

The Russian incursion into Ukraine reminds us of the famous phrase that was used to describe World War-I: A Tragedy of Miscalculations. Here though, the apt title should be ‘A Tragedy of Overconfident Miscalculations’. It then begs the answer: which actor(s) were most overconfident in this episode?

To answer this question, we have to see who the most important actors in this conflict are. Naturally, Ukraine is the most important and perhaps the most unfortunate actor in this tragic episode. It is the people of Ukraine who are going to bear the suffering and cost of these overconfident choices. Russia, USA and NATO are the other important players in this geostrategic play. Yet, it would not be wrong to say that it is the US whose opinion and decision always prevail in the decision-making process of NATO.

What are some of the events that led to the breakout of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, both of whom were the founding members of the erstwhile Soviet Union? Firstly, Ukraine’s bid to join the EU played an important role in infuriating Russia. Secondly, Ukraine’s Orange Revolution that overthrew a pro-Russian government and brought into power a pro-American leader widened the distance between Ukraine and Russia. Lastly, Ukraine’s decision to join NATO and the latter’s willingness to include Ukraine into its fold proved to be the final nail in the coffin. None of this exonerates Russia of its unjustified, unlawful and illegal attack on Ukraine. But we need to look at the reasons that pushed Russia to the wall and forced it to take extreme measures.

Russia realised very well that if Ukraine was to be a part of NATO, it would bring its arch-enemy to its front door. One of the fundamentals of international relations is that every state attempts to keep the maximum distance from its enemy. But most importantly, every state would go to any extent to preclude its enemy from coming at its front door, something that Russia realised very well. Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO would have validated Russia’s fears to which Russia responded by attacking Ukraine. It begs the question of why Ukraine did nothing to mollify Russia or make things better. In a world where there is no international government to appeal against an aggressor, every country is on its own in a self-help, anarchic system. Ukraine should have taken notice of its surroundings and concluded that being an unfortunate neighbour of an imperialist Russia, it would be on its own in this self-help system to fight the war.

Despite assurances of military and financial aid by its Western allies, it is painfully obvious that Ukraine is on its own right now. This does not mean that any nation backed out of its commitment; it is just the harsh reality of international politics. No nation can sacrifice its interest for the security of any other nation. Therefore, it is unlikely that any nation is going to step up and help Ukraine fight Russia. Both Ukraine and the US were overconfident that they could prevail in this situation. The US seemed adamant about showing its dominance by refusing to give up on any Russian demands and Ukraine had confidence in its allies’ guarantees. Russia is also overconfident that it will come out of this adventure unscathed. Russian confidence must have been shattered by the valiant resistance that the people of Ukraine have shown. Moreover, Russia has further weakened its international standing, a price of which it is going to pay in the form of excruciating economic sanctions. Hence, it would not be wrong to say that this war was a result of overconfident miscalculations by Ukraine, Russia, and the US.

Since the UN is toothless and powerless with Russian veto power in Security Council, the only plausible solution right now is for the US and Russia to get on the table and declare that Ukraine is going to be a neutral country with no specific allegiance to either Russia or to the Western bloc. The military conflict must be brought to a halt so that the Ukraine people do not keep paying the price of these overconfident miscalculations.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 14^th, 2022.

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