Crisis in Europe and Pakistan’s interests

For majority of countries in developing and under-developed world, it does not matter which power bloc is ascendant

Years ago, during a call-on with a high-level Western military delegation in the initial days of Libyan crisis; when the head of the delegation was squarely asked if the Western motive in Libya was oil; his shrugged reply was a sheepish smile. It is naïve to consider the West always acting in a just and rational way. Ideology is not always the casus belli of conflict. A liberal way of life needs to be guarded and protected through violent means, if necessary. A life made possible by economic prosperity through ruthless exploitation of resources belonging mostly to the poorer countries; by controlling global economic levers; and by cultivating and corrupting the elite of dependent nations, who are generally steeped in Western culture and ethos.

Lofty ideals like human rights, minority inclusivity, equal opportunity and freedom of expression, etc are generally for ‘others’. These ideals are mostly used to provide cover for coercive manipulation. Haven’t we all, in some degree, experienced the so called ‘white privilege’ that acts brazenly through double standards? Over 50 nations would collude to bomb Afghan civilians in errant strikes, then make a deal and just walk away with the head country stealing the poor country’s money. The mighty and the powerful would invade Iraq over flimsy, engineered and shamefully indefensible excuses. And never feel any shame, guilt or remorse. Even double standards are put to shame.

It goes like this. When the die is cast (sensing any real or perceived threat to Western ethos); the official machinery, the ‘international establishment’, the intellectual community… from think-tanks of all shades and colours to the so-called independent and conscientious media, while embracing the official line, would ‘manufacture’ a reality. The ubiquitous chorus/power of media would mould public perception around the world, and make the humanity believe in this ‘manufactured reality’. And then action in its various manifestations would follow, from arm-twisting like sanctions to outright invasion and occupation. And when the military coercion would subside; aid would flow, with most of it going back to the West in consultancy fees and other ‘charges’. Population of the affected country would invariably never benefit from the ‘noble’ Western mission of empathy, support and protection of rights, values and people.

Therefore, for majority of the countries in developing and under-developed world, it does not matter which power bloc is ascendant. If abstentions in the UNGA on Ukraine Crisis are any guide, this plain reality is also substantiated by data. US dominance versus Sino-Russian rise hardly matters to the poor of the world. Yes, their governments discreetly yearn for a multipolar world, where they have ‘some’ stake; compared to the black and white reality of unipolarity.    

As is the norm since the Gulf Wars, mostly in these engineered crises, the bystanders are asked to take sides. The instance of European embassies issuing an open letter to social media, completely disregarding the diplomatic protocol, to pressurise Pakistan into ‘condemning Russia over Ukraine’ is a case in point. They don’t see protracted atrocities committed elsewhere, as if Afghans, Kashmiris and Palestinians are lesser human beings. Social media, thankfully, has exposed such brazen display of ‘white-privilege’ not only in media coverage of the current crisis, but also over land borders when ‘people of colour’ are mostly sidelined and/or left to fend for themselves. Such instances obscure the empathy, that humanity in difficulty deserves, across Ukraine and Russia irrespective of the ‘colour of skin’… in Dr King’s words.

In today’s connected world, wars are ‘wired’… to borrow from Thomas L Freidman of The New York Times, but what if the wire is hacked by the West. With almost total blackout of the Russian point of view during the ongoing crisis, the pal-bearers of liberal and independent Western media are pushing just one narrative…casting the ‘other’ side essentially evil. The consequent choice with the poor and the weak is either ‘with us or with them’… to paraphrase senior Bush’s after 9/11. And the price of defiance is generally steep.

In reality, such brazen partisanship puts leadership of the smaller/weaker countries like Pakistan in a quandary. Acting in accordance with public conscience, mostly puts the ruling elite at odds with the West; and siding with the West would engender domestic political cost.

Our political mosaic has elements with variable Pakistaniyyat. The pro-West cabal (sizeable, influential and moneyed) in media, political class, the dynasties and bureaucracy, would do the Western bidding irrespective, believing this to be essentially Pakistan’s bidding. In so doing, they would appear articulate, data-driven and convincing. It was hilariously ironic to see a famous political pundit putting across import/export figures, to plead the case for siding with the West in this crisis. As if ‘national interest’ is just import/export figures ‘at present’.

Pakistan followed a gutsy policy (thanks mainly to the miltablishment) during Afghan war; and its recent decision to go ahead with PM’s visit to Russia has been courageous and far-sighted. Steering away from ‘bloc politics’, choosing friends and allies strictly in accordance with enduring national interest(s) and moving towards ‘geopolitical neutrality’ are commendable and wise moves by our policymakers. ‘Geoeconomic neutrality’, understandably is hard to come by…as the West still depends on Russian oil and gas.

Therefore, reading the situation correctly is existential for Pakistan, and so is our correct alignment. The government’s awoed policy emphasising ceasefire, end to hostilities, humanitarian aid and resolution of the crisis through dialogue are all correct policy pointers. We ‘must not’ take sides. Both Russia and Ukraine are Pakistan’s friends; Russia is closer to home, is an important regional stakeholder and a rising partner in energy, defence and diplomacy; and with Ukraine, Pakistan enjoys longstanding defence and people-to-people ties. And both are essentially conjoined twins.

On a human level, it is sad how the West/NATO has turned this neighborhood brawl into a much wider ‘conflict by proxies’, supplying over 17,000 anti-tank weapons and SAMs to Ukraine at warped speed; along with Turkish armed drones. Logistics from Poland and Romania; deployment of ‘cyber-mission teams’; deliberating transfer of Mig-29 fleet from Poland to bolster Ukrainian air power; and ‘persistent engagement’ with Russia in cyberspace are not so hidden efforts to prolong the fighting.

One hopes that NATO avoids being a co-combatant, transcending — wittingly/unwittingly — this local conflict into a nuclear world war with disastrous consequences. Russia is unlike US/NATO’s recent adversaries.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 10^th, 2022.

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