Russia-Ukraine conflict: story of mistrust

The war between Russia and Ukraine entered into a new phase after Russia launched an unprecedented invasion of Ukraine on 24^th February 2022. Ukraine enjoys Nato and US support, who pressured Russia to pull back its military build-up on the Ukrainian border, with no success. On the other hand, Russia accused Nato of provoking war, claiming that initially it had no intention to invade Ukraine. The breakout between Russia and Ukraine results from an epistemological gap between Russia and Nato, on severe distrust fueled by history.

Russia and the West perspective diverges on three points. Russia considers Nato more than just a pack of mutual defence. It perceives Nato as a political and cultural project aiming to achieve the anti-Russian agenda. However, Nato claims that it does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia. Furthermore, Article 5 of the Nato charter states that all other members will defend it in an attack on one member. Nato perceives itself as a defensive alliance, which Russia rejects. According to Russia, Nato has a history of getting into conflicts not directly involving its members. It uses the pretext of humanitarian interventions to justify its aggressive ambitions — like it did in Kosovo and Libya.

Moreover, Nato advocates democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of law. They promote western cultural ideals. In the case of Ukraine, Russia considers it a threat at the doorstep. Russia believes that Nato wants to transform Ukraine, making it culturally westernized.

Nato is also skeptical of Russia’s intention as, in the past, Russia has invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. Therefore, the whole situation is instigated by extreme mistrust.

Nevertheless, Russian and Belarusian military drills at the Belarusian borders made the Belarusian Nato neighbour Latvia, Lithuania and Poland uncomfortable. Russian military drills have always made the West uneasy, alarming Nato, again energising the atmosphere of frenzy between the two.

Moreover, like-minded countries support Russia, polarising the world even more.

The situation has already taken a critical turn as the US announced implementing strict restrictions on Russia, including removing Russia from the Swift banking system and suspending Nord stream 2.

The US is experiencing a rebound effect after evacuating from Afghanistan. It needs an alternative to support its war economy. Russia-Ukraine crisis is that much-desired opportunity.

On the contrary, Russia’s geopolitical and geo-economic positioning needs rationality and wisdom. The projects such as BRI, CPEC, and ITI (Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul) train are geared to change the region’s fate. Russia can gain the most from it as it will maximise its reach to the warm water, one of the deepest desires of the country to boost its trade. One hasty decision can jeopardise the prospects of these projects and the new horizon unveiling for the region. Therefore, Russia and the region have much at stake in this war.

It’s not a smooth ride for Nato either. After the cold war, it’s unprecedented that Nato has challenged any economic or military power. If Nato loses to Russia, it can risk its fate, its very existence. This clash of titans can even lead to a nuclear conflict.

After World War II, it’s the first time that Europe is experiencing war at its doorstep. The anxiety is mounting with every passing day. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is not a conflict between two countries. It is much bigger than that. Something the world has not witnessed post-cold war. There is no rational reason to go to war in this case.

The Russia-Ukraine military standoff results from the incredulity between Russia and Nato, with history supporting both sides and their perspectives. It is a war with no apparent reason and has no clear conclusion. It’s thus impossible to predict the magnitude and scope of the conflict. The war will serve the Western interest. Whereas Russia, with its geo-economic position, has much more to lose. All stakeholders must display restraint, tolerance, patience, rationality and flexibility. Only a diplomatic solution can ensure sustainable peace. The talks between Ukraine and Russia on the Belarusian border was a step in the right direction, with no apparent result.

Additionally, the world should not take it lightly.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 9^th, 2022.

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