Pakistan’s ‘neutrality’ on Ukraine crisis

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is testing Pakistan’s diplomatic skills. It has thus far maintained neutrality — having neither explicitly condemned the Russian military offensive nor having backed Ukraine. The US and other Western countries, however, want Pakistan to take a clear stance. Pakistan has often tasted the coercive diplomacy of Washington but the European countries seldom resort to such highhandedness with Islamabad. The Russian invasion seems to have changed that equation. Last week diplomats from 22 Western countries penned a joint statement urging Pakistan to condemn Russia. What was unprecedented and significant was that they opted to use the social media platforms to convey their position to Islamabad. Diplomacy is often conducted from behind the scenes because discussions are frank and candid rather than the public posturing the countries usually adopt.

The envoys who signed the joint statement represent countries that are Pakistan’s major development partners. They include France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Canada, the UK and Australia.

“Standing with our colleagues,” tweeted the US embassy in Islamabad in response to the joint statement. It is believed that the US also made Pakistan aware of the consequences of not taking a clear stance on Russia. For some, Pakistan may be once again facing “are you with us or against us” moment, a reference to President Bush’s famous speech after the 9/11 attacks.

The coordinated move by these powerful countries was meant to persuade Pakistan to vote on a resolution at the special UN General Assembly session condemning Russia. But Pakistan stood its ground and abstained from voting, joining China, India and Bangladesh. Islamabad maintained a similar stance at the UN Human Rights Council when a resolution was moved to seek an inquiry against Russia for human rights abuses in Ukraine.

Pakistan’s balancing act stems from its efforts seeking diversification of its foreign policy options. It was because of this reason that despite criticism Prime Minister Imran Khan went ahead with his scheduled visit to Russia even as tension was brewing in the region. The PM defended his visit to Moscow saying that it was part of efforts by Pakistan to pursue “independent foreign policy”. But the question remains: can Pakistan pay the price for pursuing such a policy? It is evident that the majority of the countries are on the side of the West. This was reflected in the UN General Assembly when 141 countries voted in favour of the resolution, 5 against and 35 abstained. Similarly at the UN Human Rights Council, 32 countries voted in favour of the resolution and 2 against while there were 13 abstentions. Given the sensitivities involved it is certain that the US and other Western countries would push countries like Pakistan to shun neutrality. In fact the West is convinced that being neutral means supporting Russia. One Western diplomat said Pakistan has to choose between an aggressor and a victim. This shows there will be no let-up in the West’s pressure on Pakistan despite Foreign Office summoning a group of diplomats and schooling them not to conduct diplomacy through social media platforms.

The best case scenario for Pakistan is that the Ukrainian crisis does not linger on. If the conflict ends soon that will certainly be a sigh of relief for Pakistan. On the diplomatic front there will be no pressure on choosing sides. The early diplomatic solution between Russia and the West also means a semblance of normalcy returning to the international oil and other commodity prices, something that countries like Pakistan desperately need. But for now the prospects of early solution seem grim and as a consequence Pakistan’s “neutrality” will continue to be tested.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 7^th, 2022.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.