Contrary to expectations, it wasn’t a walkover for Russia in Ukraine. The stiff resistance that has come from the beleaguered country under invasion has further upped the stakes for Moscow. Thus, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to beef up the nuclear arsenal, and alert his forces for an all-out war, is brinkmanship. This is quite an unnerving situation and demands astute diplomacy rather than off-the-cuff reactions. The response from White House, nonetheless, is calculated as it said it understands the Kremlin leader’s pattern to justify aggression by laying the blame on the West. Notwithstanding the warmongering trends, what is seriously desired is de-escalation and pushing the envelope for an immediate ceasefire, and this could only be realised if the proposed talks take place on the Belarus border.
The most concerning aspect of warfare over the weekend was a letter from President Putin to his chief of the general staff ordering him to put nuclear ‘deterrence forces’ on high alert. The response from General Shoigu was more lethal, as he replied: “Affirmative.” This was a déjà vu for many as Germans under Nazi were pursuing a similar path under Lebensraum. Russia’s listing out of its concerns as it marched into Ukraine were merely political in essence, and there was no iota of security concern to the mainland. Moscow had pursued a similar approach in Georgia and Chechnya, and this new episode of rolling over its tanks into Ukraine is fait accompli in pursuit of jingoism. There are fears of an all-out war, involving NATO, if trigger-happiness is opted by any of the warring sides.
Diplomacy is the victim as soon as the first gun shot is fired. So is the case here. Pakistan, conscious on its part to give diplomacy a chance, has done some excellent fence-mending by reaching out to Kiev, and at the same time making Moscow realise its stated position. Though Islamabad has called for de-escalation and assured Ukraine that it respects its sovereignty, it has stopped short of condemning Moscow’s aggression. This delicate balance opens up room for further parleys. The world chorus is to restore peace, and let the realpolitik of the region be decided across the table. Ukraine has hinted at neutrality, and it’s high time for Moscow to give it a patient hearing.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 1st, 2022.
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