World at the nib of a new global order

In the modern construct of International Relations (IR), the Peace of Westphalia — the treaty (1648) signed to end the ‘Thirty (1618-48) and Eighty Years Wars (1568-1648)’ in Europe — is considered a precursor. However, IR has been turning corners ever since the evolution of governance and interstate interaction. Each ‘butterfly event’ has changed IR in unfathomable ways. Collapse of the Roman Empire (476 AD), advent of Islam (6^th century), beginning of Ottoman Empire (1299), occupation of continental US by white settlers (16^th century onwards), industrial revolutions (1760-1840), World Wars (1914-18 and 1939-45), fall of the USSR (1989), wars in the Gulf (1990, 2003), the Afghanistan War (2001-21) and the IT/Social Media Revolutions are just a random list of ‘some’ cases in point.

Renaissance (14-17^th centuries) and Enlightenment (1715-89) provided Europe the edge that continues to this day. Empowered by scientific development, the European colonisers usurped the riches of their colonies with abandon to bankroll their development and territorial acquisitions. Westphalia introduced the concepts of state sovereignty, diplomacy and interstate mediation. The French Revolution (1789-99) provided Liberty, Equality and Fraternity (Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité) as its enduring legacy, under the Third Republic (1870-1940).

League of Nations (1920-46) offered to build a modern IR construct and develop consensus to avoid interstate conflict after World War-I, but peace on victors’ terms did not last. Defeat of Germany/Axis Powers at the end of World War-II steered IR towards the United Nations (1945) — again barreling down peace on victors’ terms; but the vanquished, this time around, were sufficiently weakened to rise, like Germany did after the World War-I.

In the emerging World Order, the UN was buttressed by a commensurate economic system using prevalent and predatory tools like the World Bank (estb 1944) and the IMF (1944). ‘Democracy’ wedded to the ‘capitalist economy’ was further reinforced by regional compacts like the European Union (1993); trade alliance like the World Trade Organization (1995); and policing apparatus like Financial Action Task Force (1989) etc.

The all-encompassing and effective use of media (including social media) and narrative-building under this ‘Order’ remained so strong that humanity by and large today subscribes to the Western notions of democracy, capital economy, human rights and a rule-based global order…where the rules are made by the powerful West. So far, challenges to this international order have not been strong enough as the dissolution of Soviet Union in 1989 just strengthened its chokehold, replacing bipolarity with unipolarity.

However, ‘change’ being the only permanent and unaltered fact of IR may be in the offing. The US, the unchallenged leader of the unipolar world, stands fatigued after its own ‘Twenty Years’ war in Afghanistan, overshadowing its other recent conflicts. It is bereft of a moral authority after a chaotic exit from Kabul; and for usurping half of over $7 billion, belonging to the poor and starving Afghans, giving it to affectees of 9/11 under its ‘own’ rules. This money ironically was left for ‘safe-keeping’ by previous Afghan government in the US banking system, like most nations do. This one avaricious overreach and the evaporation of the US moral authority will redefine the future financial system, eroding the present structures and practices.

The US also is grappling with a resurgent China and a hard-nosed Sino-Russia combine internationally. At home, it is beset by worsening race relations, the pandemic, decaying infrastructure, faltering education system and bipartisan acrimony. Consequently, it has been in retreat from its global overreach. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, gulped down Crimea in 2014 and recently sent troops to Kyrgyzstan right under its nose. And in the backdrop of ominous (and irreversible) military build-up around Ukraine on land and in sea, the US has sensibly declared not to send America troops to defend its non-NATO ally.

Elsewhere, the US has waning interest in the Middle East with regional rulers flocking to the Beijing Winter Olympics, having sensed the winds of change. Even Israel has been on a mission to mend fences in its erstwhile hostile neighborhood. And India, the US’s ‘would be’ South Asian policeman does not tow the American line on Ukraine, siding instead with its mentor, benefactor and ally…Russia.

The Sino-Russian combine, meanwhile, marches forward. China’s 2013 ambitious signature foreign policy initiative, BRI, plans global connectivity with and among some 126 countries and 29 international organisations through a network of roads, highways, railways, pipelines, power plants, grids and fiber-optic, besides social welfare and poverty alleviation projects. BRI is a staggering investment of over $1.3 trillion in six international corridors. The initiative would ultimately cover over 60% of the world population and 40% of the global GDP. The trade volume between China and the participating countries (already over $6 trillion) was to add $117 billion in 2021.

BRI will reduce global trade costs and transportation time. With CPEC as its pilot project, it dwarfs any international developmental initiative thus far. More countries are eager to sign on, casting politics aside.

China’s resolute response to the pandemic and its global aid (even to the US) of PPE/vaccines has greatly validated its system of governance and economy…providing a viable alternative to the Western mix of ‘uncontrolled’ democracy and ‘predatory’ capitalism, where ‘lending’ benefits the US/West the most. China, hence, holds comparative moral authority.

Both Russia and China are de-dollarising their economies to insulate themselves from the sanctions of ‘economic hitmen’. And Chinese leaders must, therefore, be mulling over substituting the WB and IMF to consolidate their ultimate IR dominance that shifts from geopolitics to geoeconomics.

Europe, meanwhile, festoons in squabbles. Crisis in Ukraine (read Eastern Europe) does not ring a bell as loud as Ukrainian government feels it should, in Western Europe. German ambivalence is due to Russian economic clout and weaponising its 35% gas supply to Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron basically undertook a PR mission for domestic brownie points. So, President Vladimir Putin knows what he is doing and why.

Africa, South/Central Asia and Americas, meanwhile, are marginal players on the contemporary IR chessboard, with most taking the geoeconomics route for survival and salvation. And that is where greater displacement is taking place…towards China, the Middle Kingdom.

Pakistan, meanwhile, is poised correctly, allied correctly except for ‘block neutrality in theory’.

The politics of Nord Storm 2 next time.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 17^th, 2022.

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