Pakistan’s war on terror-II

There has been a sudden spike in terrorist attacks in restive Balochistan province over the last couple of weeks. The first major attack happened on the night between January 25 and 26 when terrorists targeted a security checkpost in Kech district. At least 10 Pakistani soldiers embraced martyrdom in the attack before the security forces neutralised the terrorists.

On the first of February, terrorist struck again this time targeting the FC headquarters in Noshki and Punjgor districts of Balochistan. While the Noshki attack was repulsed within hours, the Punjgor standoff continued at least till Saturday evening. Seven Pakistani soldiers, including a major, were martyred while 13 terrorists were also killed.

The Majid Brigade of the outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Different terrorist outfits are currently engaged in a bloody insurgency in Balochistan. Some of them are Balochistan Liberation Army, Balochistan National Army, and Balochistan Liberation Front. These groups have now merged and are fighting under a united front.

Pakistani security estimates suggest that these groups have a total strength of 15,000. They have been operating out of Afghanistan for 16 years as Pakistani authorities intercepted communication between the attackers of Noshki and Punjgor with their handlers both in India and Afghanistan.

The more worrying aspect of these attacks is that these Baloch groups in the past rarely carried out such sophisticated attacks. The Noshki-Panjgor attack was similar to the ones carried out by the banned TTP and its affiliates. So the question arises: is the TTP helping or training members of Baloch terrorist groups; and more importantly, are they both now working in tandem against the state of Pakistan? There is no concrete evidence to suggest that, as Baloch groups and TTP are ideologically poles apart. But the possibility of such an alliance cannot be ruled out.

In the past, Baloch groups typically used to exploit the security situation in Balochistan and usually carry out hit-and-run attacks or carry out attacks through IEDs and other remote devices. Their fighters never operated the way TTP terrorists did, though they now have Majid Brigade primarily to conduct suicide missions. But some of the terrorist attacks carried out by Majid Brigade were not as lethal as the one witnessed in Noshki and Punjgor.

Baloch insurgency has always been backed by regional and extra-regional players. Pakistan has time and again said the Afghan soil had often been used by those elements to advance their strategic interests. But Pakistan was hoping that the exit of the US forces from neighbouring Afghanistan would discourage those elements or deny them the space under Taliban rule to operate out of Afghanistan. Recent events, however, suggest the contrary. The number of terrorist attacks in Balochistan and in other parts of the country saw an increase in 2021 compared to 2020. In fact the surge in attacks coincided with the Afghan Taliban takeover.

In September last year just a month after the chaotic US exit from Afghanistan, a top US general warned that the US withdrawal could affect Pakistan the most.

“I think the country that is going to be most affected frankly that is going to be Pakistan because the possibility of unconstrained refugee flows, because of the possibility of new terrorist attacks in Pakistan that could ramp up as a result of this [US troops withdrawal from Pakistan],” cautioned US Centcom Chief Gen Kenneth F McKenzie during a Congressional hearing.

This means that the US assessment was on the dot. Those who were hoping that the US withdrawal would make matters easy perhaps need to recalibrate their approach. The US has left behind enough arms and ammunition in Afghanistan that can feed Baloch and other terrorist groups for many years to come. It is clear that the phase two of the war on terror has only just begun.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, February 7^th, 2022.

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