A bitter truth

Every election of Pakistan has established one bitter truth: that a large majority of Pakistanis have little trust in political leaders and the electoral system. This has proven by the turnout in each election. A recent example is the local bodies’ elections in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) where just 40% of registered voters bothered to go for polling. Is this good enough or not? According to the Voter Turnout Trends Around the World report from the world-renowned International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Pakistan ranks at 153^rd among 196 countries. In terms of female participation, Pakistan is right at the bottom of the index.

If we calculate voter turnout based on voting age persons (VAP), the turnout in the general election 2018 drops from 51.5% to 40% as nearly 30 million VAPs were not registered as voters, and 20 million or two-thirds of them were women. Strangely, despite many registration campaigns, about 10 million fewer eligible women are still out of the electoral roll than their male counterparts. In other words, 60% of VAPs had not participated in the election as voters. This seems to be a systemic failure.

In the recent K-P local government elections, only 40% of voters cast their vote, and on almost every seat no winner had a majority vote. As many as 19 returned candidates on Tehsil Chair and Naib Chair seats received between 5% and 10% of the total votes; 13 winners got between 11% and 15% of the registered voters; and only four returned candidates obtained between 16% and 25%. In five major cities of the Peshawar valley, on average the winning parties obtained just 6.7% and 20.5% of the registered and polled votes respectively.

At the national level too, since the 1988 election, every ruling party had less than 15% of the VAPs.

This tiny support base of political parties has serious socio-political implications. It is argued by some scholars that low turnout is most likely to benefit the rich more than the poor as the political elite “feel less under public scrutiny” (pressure) and “instead of formulating public policies serving society at large, governments can easily target benefits to their core supporters”. This seems true in Pakistan. Almost every party that ruled the country never tried to improve governance and delivery of services. Instead of spending foreign aid and loans on programmes, they are being siphoned off by the elites. This has alienated the public, lowered their trust in the political elite, and caused a decline in turnout. It has become a vicious cycle.

This ever-declining turnout is one of the major causes of political instability. If 80% of the adult population in the country has repeatedly passively rejected the ruling party, it means there is a huge scope for new actors. Consider the emergence of PTI in Pakistan and the rise of the BJP in India. Also, the growing popularity of the rightist leaders in the US and Europe indicates the failure of the existing parties. No wonder many political scientists are worried about the backsliding of democracy in the west.

Coming back to the K-P local elections, it was simply a wholesome rejection of the political elite by the people. There was absolutely no winner. By little variation, everyone had lost. Amazingly, those who lost were found celebrating the defeat of lesser losers.

Though there appears little hope for reforms from the existing political elite, civil society must develop a reform agenda and build pressure collectively for meaningful change. Some of the points to kickstart the debate are suggested below.

1) The top priority must be to weaken the elite’s stranglehold as there is almost a consensus amongst policymakers, scholars and the public. Even some political leaders are seen talking against the elite capture. Therefore, this consensus must be translated into a reality. And it could be initiated by barring immediate family members from capturing quota and the Senate seats. Also, there is a need to find a solution to end the monopoly of a few families over our legislative and political arenas. We all know that some party leaders have all their adult family members sitting in various assemblies and the Senate. This must come to an end. An anecdote worth stating here. I remember when I suggested this to a senior politician, he vehemently rejected the idea. He argued that the right of individuals to contest elections cannot be denied in any case. This may be true but when a couple of hundred super-rich families deny rights to crores of citizens then in such an extraordinary situation, extraordinary measures become the need of the hour. Article 38 of the Constitution aims to end economic monopolies which could be extended to the political sphere too.

2) One person can contest elections from multiple constituencies. Most party leaders won from more than one seat in every election and since they could keep only one seat, they must resign from the rest. As a result, soon after every general election, we go through a mini general election. A huge amount of money is wasted on this unnecessary repetition. Ban this practice.

3) Replace the majoritarian electoral system with a proportional representation (PR) system. The PR system is more democratic and more representative. Also, it is worth noting that turnout in the PR system has been higher than the majoritarian system.

4) Since working of political parties has become an integral part of the 2017 Elections Act, the election commission should establish a special wing to oversee and monitor the internal elections and working of parties.

5) End all forms of indirect elections to fill quotas and the Senate seats. In this regard, all quota seats in the national and provincial assemblies should be proportionally divided over general seats and declare them multi-member constituencies. This system was used during 2001-05 for local elections and will be adopted in the forthcoming local government elections of Punjab. It appears the multi-member constituencies serve the constituents better.

Our polity desperately requires electoral reforms. The above-mentioned set of reforms if implemented diligently and wisely will most likely enhance the public trust in the system and increase participation in the electoral system. The elite must take this bitter pill of reforms before it is imposed by others.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 4^th, 2022.

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